This pair has been in this descending channel for three years, with one major fall out in 2016, re-entering the highs of the channel Dec 2017, and we're now approaching the higher edge of the channel with either a move lower inside the developing Head and Shoulders pattern, after a move up to 110.5 - 111 or we break out of the channel, for a much bigger move to the upside.
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PLAN A: Currently a small pullback is in control, but we've been in an uptrend for 7 days and we're at the first line of support. Patience, we'll need to break down below the close or pullback and reject the highs.Note
Trade active
We've had many rejections on the Right shoulder now and the DXY is looking quote bearish. Trade active. Note
Remember that I have three options on the table for this pair, two short and one long, two of them require going higher than Plan A, so be very aware that right now, the Yen is still weak and the only reason we're going lower right now, is the DXY has pulled back to support.Note
If you're making lots of trades per day and risking more than a few % of your trading account on each trade, and trading lots of the same pairs all the time, your not trading, your gambling and badly. That maximum I ever trade is 5% of my entire trading account and that's to the top of my stop loss and that's only if the set-up is a 5 star, I may do that once a week if I'm lucky, it's normally closer to 1-3% Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.
If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.
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It's a good profitable start on Plan ANote
Stops placed at breakeven, there is a chance the Yen loses strength overnight and the US $ takes a Bullish move, rather be out and into Plan B than in a loss, but going well so far.Note
A continued beautiful move to the downside last night, 100pips in profit, looking to continue to the neckline of the H&S if we break 50% support of the Right shoulder, we'll move down to the next level quickly.Trade closed manually
Position closed after a double bottom occurred @109.3 75 pips profits taken, now we're looking at Plan B or C... Trade active
My order was filled last night @110.4 and look at the lovely rejection of the previous support line, we're going down again.Targets are obvious here:
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Look at that daily rejection under the right shoulder, bearish support.Note
Broken through that support line now and we're either going for Plan B or C this time.Note
This pair is moving up towards Option B and C, C is now my preference based on the big US moves, but, if DXY BREAKS 95
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This is what I'm expecting on this pair Note
Here's the long-term view of this pair, while we've been in this bearish channel for the majority of the last few years, coming off a very strong bullish move in 2012.Short term, I'm bullish to 112, the North edge of the channel and if we break out of the channel towards 114, then we're going much much higher towards 118 & 126.
Looking for an entry, wait for a pullback into the 110 zone and look to exit around 111.5, unless we blast straight through the North edge of the channel, we could easily reject that and head back down again, moving sideways until breaking out of the channel around 111 or we carry on back down towards 107, unlikely given the current fundamentals.
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Political instability and Trumps tariffs have caused a flight to the yen, we got closer to Plan B, than C, no interest in selling the US dollar long-term yet.Note
Took 220 pips profit on two trades, and still have 20% of that profit in the trade, although it's sitting in the loss zone using Plan B, with a pullback coming in now after testing 111. One last move down and then I think we're looking at Plan C with the China weakness forced on them by Trump.Note
I'll take that, just what we're looking for, the DXY has rejected the move higher and requires a pullback to move another move, this will give us US$ Weakness, so look for the counter trades, I would say intraday only or 1% positions or less while the market finds new levelsNote
I never re-entered the trade, but as you can see, eventually PLAN C was the winner!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.