Following the successful retest of the 124.00 handle, a conservative wave of bids came into the market during the course of yesterday’s sessions, which pushed price up to test the June 24th high 124.36. For those who have been following our reports on this pair for some time, you will likely recall that we are confident that this market is headed for 125.00, and as such, we see 124.36 as a temporary glitch. For the benefit of readers who have just begun following our analysis, we’ll quickly explain why we believe this market is still headed north in bullet-point form:
• Strong buying seen from the weekly swap area at 122.01-121.40 with room to move north up to the weekly swap level coming in at 125.44.
• Room on the daily timeframe for price to appreciate further up to a daily resistance zone seen at 125.69-124.62 (surrounds the aforementioned weekly swap level).
• The 4hr timeframe shows very little active supply above current price in our opinion. Check out the supply consumption wicks seen marked with red arrows at: 123.97/124.36/124.43/124.61.
Unfortunately, we did not see any opportunity to buy from 124.00, so unless we get a second retest of 124.00, we may have missed the boat so to speak from here. Not all is lost though. Should price violate 124.36 today, this would potentially give us a second opportunity to enter long if price retests 124.36 as support (lower timeframe confirmation required). Our ultimate target for longs taken from either 124.00 or 124.36 will be 124.95.
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: 124.00 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: depending on where one confirms this level).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).