USD/JPY bearish south of 200-day SMA
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Leaving demand at 105.70/106.66 unopposed, price action established a healthy bullish recovery into the close, inviting an approach to the 200-day SMA at 108.31, adding nearly 50 points on the week.
Should a close higher transpire, active supply is limited according to local price action until we near the 111.30 region along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10.
H4 timeframe:
Familiar supply at 108.88/108.49, an area of supply that contained upside earlier in the week, re-emerged in the closing stages of play Friday. A rejection from this angle this week potentially confirms a rangebound market on this timeframe, with the lower boundary coming in at demand from 106.75/107.22.
Areas outside of the said zones has supply resting at 109.71/109.20, and a supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform (positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99) to the downside.
H1 timeframe:
Early trade Friday witnessed a mild fakeout north of 108 – this was likely a bull trap as price swiftly reverted to lows of 107.80. Heading into London, however, a more decisive move higher materialised, leading to an approach towards the underside of ‘stacked’ supply at 108.90/108.62. Directly above we can see a demand-turned supply forms at 108.84/109.23, housing the round number 109 within its lower limit.
In terms of the 100-period SMA, the value is seen drifting a touch beneath 108, currently trading at 107.83. With respect to the RSI indicator, we traded from overbought levels and are seen bottoming ahead of 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term:
USD/JPY is unlikely to reflect a bullish stance until we decisively firm above the 200-day SMA; this, technically speaking, clears the path for higher levels.
Shorter term:
The fact we’re coming from a 200-day SMA value, a H4 supply at 108.88/108.49 and stacked H1 supply (lower boundary) at 108.90/108.62, a dip back to 108 could be in the offing in early trade this week on the H1, with the possibility of a fakeout emerging to the 100-period SMA.
Most traders, however, will likely want to see a retest at 108.90/108.62 before engaging, as price currently trades in no man’s land right now, according to chart studies on the H1.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Leaving demand at 105.70/106.66 unopposed, price action established a healthy bullish recovery into the close, inviting an approach to the 200-day SMA at 108.31, adding nearly 50 points on the week.
Should a close higher transpire, active supply is limited according to local price action until we near the 111.30 region along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10.
H4 timeframe:
Familiar supply at 108.88/108.49, an area of supply that contained upside earlier in the week, re-emerged in the closing stages of play Friday. A rejection from this angle this week potentially confirms a rangebound market on this timeframe, with the lower boundary coming in at demand from 106.75/107.22.
Areas outside of the said zones has supply resting at 109.71/109.20, and a supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform (positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99) to the downside.
H1 timeframe:
Early trade Friday witnessed a mild fakeout north of 108 – this was likely a bull trap as price swiftly reverted to lows of 107.80. Heading into London, however, a more decisive move higher materialised, leading to an approach towards the underside of ‘stacked’ supply at 108.90/108.62. Directly above we can see a demand-turned supply forms at 108.84/109.23, housing the round number 109 within its lower limit.
In terms of the 100-period SMA, the value is seen drifting a touch beneath 108, currently trading at 107.83. With respect to the RSI indicator, we traded from overbought levels and are seen bottoming ahead of 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term:
USD/JPY is unlikely to reflect a bullish stance until we decisively firm above the 200-day SMA; this, technically speaking, clears the path for higher levels.
Shorter term:
The fact we’re coming from a 200-day SMA value, a H4 supply at 108.88/108.49 and stacked H1 supply (lower boundary) at 108.90/108.62, a dip back to 108 could be in the offing in early trade this week on the H1, with the possibility of a fakeout emerging to the 100-period SMA.
Most traders, however, will likely want to see a retest at 108.90/108.62 before engaging, as price currently trades in no man’s land right now, according to chart studies on the H1.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.