Further selling likely on the cards...
In recent trading, H4 action lifted the pair to highs of 113.75 on the back of upbeat US PPI data. As can be seen from the H4 timeframe, however, price failed to sustain gains beyond 113.71/113.65 (H4 Quasimodo resistance/November’s opening line) going into the US session and retreated to lows of 113.37.
For those who read previous reports, you may recall that we highlighted 113.71/113.65 as a potential resistance zone. As these two levels are drawn within the current daily supply zone sited at 113.91-113.45, and knowing that this daily supply is bolstered by a weekly supply fixed at 115.50-113.85, it was not surprising to see the H4 base hold firm for second time.
Direction:
• Long: It’d be very risky to buy into current structure, despite the latest swing north!
• Short: Well done to those already short from 113.71/113.65. Most have likely placed stops above the current daily supply at 113.93. Given that H4 demand appears incredibly consumed beneath current price (check out the H4 buying tails marked with a green arc), traders may want to consider holding out for the 113 handle and quite possibly the daily demand base seen at 111.99-112.57 (positioned nearby December/October’s opening levels on the H4 timeframe at 112.58/112.64).
Data points to consider: US CPI figures at 1.30pm; FOMC interest-rate decision, economic projections and statement at 7pm; FOMC press conference at 7.30pm; FOMC member Brainard speaks at 11pm GMT.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: 113 handle; 111.99-112.57.
Resistances: 113.65; 113.71; 114 handle; 113.91-113.45; 115.50-113.85.
For those who read previous reports, you may recall that we highlighted 113.71/113.65 as a potential resistance zone. As these two levels are drawn within the current daily supply zone sited at 113.91-113.45, and knowing that this daily supply is bolstered by a weekly supply fixed at 115.50-113.85, it was not surprising to see the H4 base hold firm for second time.
Direction:
• Long: It’d be very risky to buy into current structure, despite the latest swing north!
• Short: Well done to those already short from 113.71/113.65. Most have likely placed stops above the current daily supply at 113.93. Given that H4 demand appears incredibly consumed beneath current price (check out the H4 buying tails marked with a green arc), traders may want to consider holding out for the 113 handle and quite possibly the daily demand base seen at 111.99-112.57 (positioned nearby December/October’s opening levels on the H4 timeframe at 112.58/112.64).
Data points to consider: US CPI figures at 1.30pm; FOMC interest-rate decision, economic projections and statement at 7pm; FOMC press conference at 7.30pm; FOMC member Brainard speaks at 11pm GMT.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: 113 handle; 111.99-112.57.
Resistances: 113.65; 113.71; 114 handle; 113.91-113.45; 115.50-113.85.
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