USDJPY- Below 113.35- C-Wave Down of Expanded Flat
Updated
Likely a trap where this 4th wave in UJ travelled beyond its 3rd wave high & happens only in irregular correction which is the present case. Shall be looking for 38.2% retracement of 2-3 wave distance which comes in the zone 108.80- 108.90
One thing to be taken care of that it should sustain below 113.35 mark- then only desired move in the zone 108.80-108.90 could be expected.
Why 108.80 is important support because that was the turning point where UJ travelled so far on upside till 114.80's trapping bears when first time I came up with short term top in UJ at 109.75 will 3rd wave end update - even took sell & booked at 108.50-108.60.
When it formed a bottom in the zone 108.40-108.50 - & started a bounce - I was very clear that no sell positions could be taken unless 108.75-108.80 is again taken out to the downside- which never happened so no sells was advised.
Related Analysis Attached below
One thing to be taken care of that it should sustain below 113.35 mark- then only desired move in the zone 108.80-108.90 could be expected.
Why 108.80 is important support because that was the turning point where UJ travelled so far on upside till 114.80's trapping bears when first time I came up with short term top in UJ at 109.75 will 3rd wave end update - even took sell & booked at 108.50-108.60.
When it formed a bottom in the zone 108.40-108.50 - & started a bounce - I was very clear that no sell positions could be taken unless 108.75-108.80 is again taken out to the downside- which never happened so no sells was advised.
Related Analysis Attached below
Trade active
08:04 Hrs 5th Dec2016Last Price@113.62
Alternate Count- A possible triangle scenario also could play out if the lower end of UJ@111. 35 is intact & upper end @114.80 is intact - in that case UJ could give another tough & challenging task traders as this could move another week into sideways action so lower could be taken as buying opportunity & upper end close by can be taken selling opportunity.
& if it goes below 111.35 in that case our primary count becomes active which can take UJ atleast to 108.80-108.90 zone.
Trade active
13:57 Hrs 5th Dec2016Last Price@114.07
UJ turns upside from 113.35-
Now going below 113.70-113.80 - we will look for downside corrective leg & once it goes below 113.35 -it will extend down.
Trade active
17:08 Hrs 5th Dec2016Session HIgh@114.45
Lst Price@114.19
Trading close to 114.89 was advisable as in triangle pattern which could be the likely pattern unfolding here in the UJ- makes sense to sell close by to tops which was 114.89 & buying bottoms should be the game plan. Going below 113.80- moves to 113.35-below 113.35 can extend to 112.40-112.50's -which shall complete c-leg & then push upside holding 111.35 on bottom.
Trade active
21:18 Hrs 5th Dec2016Last Price@114. 77
Turned very close from the top@114.82 -previous swing high & important one- as expected that we should sell close to the previous high- we can't get a better opportunity than this one. Losing 5-10 pips in sell, trade as selling close to 114.82 highs & now I shall be looking for 113.80 to break, then will carry 113.35 & going below that we will expect 112.40-112.50
Trade active
13:48 Hrs 7th Dec2016Last Price@114.25
RBI- Reserve Bank of India Policy is going to be out -UJ bulls be careful. Bears could become active below rising trendline.
The move could be sharp down into 113 zone- wait for the trendline to break.
Trade active
21:12 Hrs 7th Dec2016RBI (Reserve Bank of India) -keeps rate unchanged- India Market -India Nifty & BankNifty(Bank Index) puke- Nifty falls 120+ points from top 8190 to 8078 & BankNifty falls 600+ points from 18588 to 17952 to surprise Indian Traders as suggested in previous update above- What a connection between them so concluded UJ also falls.
UJ looks to fall as well from 114.30's - Took short again at top for targets 112.70-112.85's- Trade with Care
Trade active
20:08 Hrs 8th Dec2016Last Price@113.96
Session High@114.38
Session High was very close to key resistance level@114.40 has turned exactly below that suggesting that UJ has one leg down, which could be in the zone 112.70-112.85 with strict stops above 114.40 levels
Trade active
12:15 Hrs 9th Dec2016Last Price@114.40
(( ))- circled wave
It is likely looking a big triangle full of complex waves- currently moving into C-wave which internally looks to divided into ((w))- ((x))- ((y)) wave- in that C-wave we are moving into ((x))- wave & within ((x))-wave we are moving into (c) wave which could complete in the zone 114.85-114.95 zone appears a flat structure - flat structure in elliott waves are 3-3-5 structure - if you see carefully ((x)) wave is made of (a) wave - (b) wave & running into (c) -wave which is impulsive on lower degree. Once ((x)) -wave is done which could go slightly above current highs of 114.82-114.77 zone as mentioned 114.85-114.95 zone - You should wait to see if UJ gets resistance then a sharp fall could push it down till 112.80-112.95 zones where ((w))-((x))-((y)) wave will finish C-wave of the triangle- once done then we look for confirmation for longs towards up-push & D-wave ..then E-wave down -Then an upthrust finally taking it to new highs in the zone 115.90-116.50 zone.
Trade active
17:32 Hrs 9th Dec201655 pips +
Last Price@114.97
55 pips from 114.40 to 114.95 as expected in above update- clicked. Now we will see whether this zone of 114.85-114.95 holds UJ- if yes, then possibly a big down move is waiting next till 112.80-112.95 zones
Trade active
19:50 Hrs 9th Dec2016Last Price@115.02
Day's High@115.28
Going below 114.80
Having strict stops above 115.30 - we will first look for an initial halt in the zone 113.90-114.
Trade active
20:30 Hrs 9th Dec2016Last Price@115.10
Sell call is not activated -which triggers only once UJ starts moving below 114.80-114.85 zone till then we should wait & watch.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh
Growth Director - TradingView India
YouTube Channel youtube.com/channel/UCYcnYveYBNLD-Qp54hvZogw
Twitter Handle
twitter.com/TalksWave
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Abhishek H. Singh
Growth Director - TradingView India
YouTube Channel youtube.com/channel/UCYcnYveYBNLD-Qp54hvZogw
Twitter Handle
twitter.com/TalksWave
Telegram Handle
(Deleted)
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