ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.11.15
Updated
I wont be covering the macro here today as I have widely mentioned it in the latest Telegram posts. There is a palpable difference in market perceptions around risk, and with that comes opportunity to capitalise on the mis-pricing.
Japanese banks have been shrinking foreign exposure and reducing JPY loans, this is a push up factor for JPY and will help us navigate the JPY pathway comfortably. In my books getting strategically long JPY into year-end makes sense, markets are not prepared for a setback with trade negotiations and with Fed continuing to flood USD supply the USD looks set to march sharply lower.
Those following the macro flows since the beginning of the year will remember the infamous USDJPY chart:
For the technicals engaging in short exposure at key resistance here makes sense 108.6x with initial targets at 107.9x followed by the key level of interest at the bottom of the 107 handle 107.1x.
Jump into the comments with your charts and views on USDJPY and further conversation for all following other risk plays.
Good luck..
Japanese banks have been shrinking foreign exposure and reducing JPY loans, this is a push up factor for JPY and will help us navigate the JPY pathway comfortably. In my books getting strategically long JPY into year-end makes sense, markets are not prepared for a setback with trade negotiations and with Fed continuing to flood USD supply the USD looks set to march sharply lower.
Those following the macro flows since the beginning of the year will remember the infamous USDJPY chart:
For the technicals engaging in short exposure at key resistance here makes sense 108.6x with initial targets at 107.9x followed by the key level of interest at the bottom of the 107 handle 107.1x.
Jump into the comments with your charts and views on USDJPY and further conversation for all following other risk plays.
Good luck..
Note
From the Telegram update:"In my Tradingview Portfolio, interestingly US 2s10s curve flattened further despite yields ticking higher, implying the risk asset rally is overcooked and makes me happy to remain short USDJPY. There is room to add on the 109 handle with only a break above 109.5 requiring reassessment."
Note
Nothing to broadly update here, risk markets remain less sanguine.
Note
108.65x remains the key level to track here
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