In Athena's Camp
Updated
What I am seeing is a lot of questions around the hanging and shallow nature of the pullback of 'iv' in this 'C' leg. We will also cover some of the Fed talk, which is getting somewhat over-cooked.
In my opinion, the issue with the pullback in 'iv' is one of the classical issues with momentum and impulsive plays. We are here talking about the same leg from 100, 103, 105, 108, 114, 118, 120, and now 134. The value in FX is spotting divergences ahead of time, we outguessed the statically weak BOJ, while FED showed dynamic strength triggering an impulsive leg.
In this impulse, the problem around when to add becomes important because the natural stop loss (i.e below the last 108 swing lows) reaches beyond the realms of any r:r. So has the train already left?
It is essential for you to make up your own mind, based on your own experience, about the problem I have just indicated. Try, as Buyers aim to reach their natural target, e.g 150, to find some final hit-and-runs with the news flow. This has been an excellent live example so far. It will do you good to get a feel of how quickly impulsive legs can become in the middle and late stages. In addition, it has been an enriching experience of just how important it is to infiltrate your opponent before they realise the battle has even started.
Hopefully some useful perspective, the fruits of the USDJPY maps stretching the last few years, will help you along this thorny road, but only painful experience can help you find your last minute entries here.
In my opinion, the issue with the pullback in 'iv' is one of the classical issues with momentum and impulsive plays. We are here talking about the same leg from 100, 103, 105, 108, 114, 118, 120, and now 134. The value in FX is spotting divergences ahead of time, we outguessed the statically weak BOJ, while FED showed dynamic strength triggering an impulsive leg.
In this impulse, the problem around when to add becomes important because the natural stop loss (i.e below the last 108 swing lows) reaches beyond the realms of any r:r. So has the train already left?
It is essential for you to make up your own mind, based on your own experience, about the problem I have just indicated. Try, as Buyers aim to reach their natural target, e.g 150, to find some final hit-and-runs with the news flow. This has been an excellent live example so far. It will do you good to get a feel of how quickly impulsive legs can become in the middle and late stages. In addition, it has been an enriching experience of just how important it is to infiltrate your opponent before they realise the battle has even started.
Hopefully some useful perspective, the fruits of the USDJPY maps stretching the last few years, will help you along this thorny road, but only painful experience can help you find your last minute entries here.
Note
all clear after the fact...
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