106.70 H1 support could be a level worth featuring on watchlists

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.

Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis -

Demand at 105.70/106.66 remains in focus on the daily timeframe. Although a reasonably hardwearing zone since early May, buyers appear to be lacking spirit. The previous reaction on June 23, as you can see, failed to reach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.35 before rotating lower, emphasising buyer weakness.

Moves below current demand re-opens the risk of a return to support at 105.01.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis -

Recent developments on the H4 timeframe reveal price movement to be carving out a consolidation between supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand coming in from 106.39/106.64.

Traders will also note the latter comes with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 106.67 and is situated within the upper boundary of daily demand from 105.70/106.66.

Outside of the aforesaid range, peaks around 107.77 and the 108.09 level represent resistance, while through demand we can see support at 105.99.

H1 timeframe:

Trendline support (106.66) made an entrance heading into US trade Monday, as price movement whipsawed through the 100-period simple moving average. 107 support is located close by, while a turn higher may witness 107.50 call for attention. Additional support can also be found at 106.70.

Structures of Interest:

Partially altered from previous analysis -

Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 recently re-joined the fight, albeit echoing a fragile tone.

Supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand from 106.39/106.64 on the H4 are likely to remain on the radar, particularly the latter owing to the confluence it brings to the table. Therefore, 106.70 H1 support could be a level worth featuring on the watchlist, should we nudge past 107.

Alternatively, H1 buyers may favour 107 for a bounce on the basis we’ll likely trip sell-stop liquidity under current H1 trendline support.
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