USD/JPY: Continuation Pattern in Focus?
The USD/JPY pair is currently in a significant uptrend on the daily chart, characterised by a series of rising highs and lows. Following a marked upward movement, the price has entered a consolidation phase, indicating a temporary pause before potentially resuming its directional trajectory. This sideways movement is often interpreted as preparation for a breakout, presenting an intriguing opportunity for attentive investors.
Possible Buy Scenario
Should the price manage to breach the resistance within the current consolidation range, approximately at the 158.00 level, it could signal a resumption of the uptrend in the coming days. A daily close above this resistance would strongly indicate a continuation of the upward momentum, with a target set around the 161.75 region (approximately 350 pips). This target marks the next significant resistance zone on the chart and represents the highest price observed in recent years, largely attributed to the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain very low interest rates, leading to a considerable depreciation of the Yen.
In this scenario, an effective risk management strategy could involve placing a stop loss just below the low of the consolidation range, around 155.80 (approximately 250 pips), to protect against potential false breakouts.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Conversely, if the price fails to break through the resistance and instead falls below the consolidation level at 155.80, this could signal a possible reversal or a deeper correction. Under these circumstances, the USD/JPY might seek lower support, such as the 151.50 region, which aligns with a previous support zone on the chart.
This scenario would indicate a shift in market behaviour, potentially influenced by macroeconomic events or fundamental data that could impact risk appetite.
In summary
Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic developments, including US employment data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and geopolitical events, as these can introduce volatility into the pair. Paying attention to price behaviour within the consolidation range will be crucial in determining which of the outlined scenarios is most likely to materialise.
Disclaimer
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and if you can afford the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values may fluctuate, and you may not recover your initial investment. This content is not intended for residents of the UK.
Possible Buy Scenario
Should the price manage to breach the resistance within the current consolidation range, approximately at the 158.00 level, it could signal a resumption of the uptrend in the coming days. A daily close above this resistance would strongly indicate a continuation of the upward momentum, with a target set around the 161.75 region (approximately 350 pips). This target marks the next significant resistance zone on the chart and represents the highest price observed in recent years, largely attributed to the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain very low interest rates, leading to a considerable depreciation of the Yen.
In this scenario, an effective risk management strategy could involve placing a stop loss just below the low of the consolidation range, around 155.80 (approximately 250 pips), to protect against potential false breakouts.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Conversely, if the price fails to break through the resistance and instead falls below the consolidation level at 155.80, this could signal a possible reversal or a deeper correction. Under these circumstances, the USD/JPY might seek lower support, such as the 151.50 region, which aligns with a previous support zone on the chart.
This scenario would indicate a shift in market behaviour, potentially influenced by macroeconomic events or fundamental data that could impact risk appetite.
In summary
Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic developments, including US employment data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and geopolitical events, as these can introduce volatility into the pair. Paying attention to price behaviour within the consolidation range will be crucial in determining which of the outlined scenarios is most likely to materialise.
Disclaimer
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and if you can afford the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values may fluctuate, and you may not recover your initial investment. This content is not intended for residents of the UK.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.