(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Although chalking up its third successive daily loss Tuesday, USD/JPY continues to circle the upper boundary of demand from 105.70/106.66.
Should the demand eventually abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 perhaps making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
A bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 took hold after having its lower boundary taken in recent weeks. Despite a modest recovery on Thursday last week, downside remains the favoured route, according to chart studies.
If we take April 29 low at 106.35, buyers will likely be defenceless until reaching demand at 105.75/105.17, an area sited just above the bearish pennant’s take-profit target. Traditionally, take-profit targets out of bearish pennant patterns are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding the value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
H1 timeframe:
London hours had price action whipsaw through the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 106.77 and cross paths with trendline resistance (107.49), before diving to 106.50 into the US session. Despite an earnest attempt at recovery from here, price is struggling to overcome trendline support-turned resistance (106.35).
Structures of Interest:
As stated in Monday’s analysis, price action on the monthly timeframe could essentially pop either way. The response out of daily demand at 105.70/106.66, however, echoes a fragile tone, therefore 100.68/101.85 could be brought to light in the near future.
H4 price shows scope to navigate lower ground, possibly voyaging to demand at 105.75/105.17 over the coming weeks, followed by the bearish pennant take-profit target at 104.89.
H1 flow is also threatening a move beyond 106.50, throwing a light on 106 as a possible support target for intraday bearish scenarios.
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