Possible selling opportunity around 114.03/113.85...

The US dollar concluded Wednesday’s session marginally higher against its Japanese counterpart, after reaching a peak of 113.81 amid the US mid-term election results.

Recent buying brought weekly action within close proximity of supply at 115.50-113.85. Note this supply has incredibly strong history. Despite strong selling likely residing around the underside of this area, daily action overthrew resistance at 113.40, possibly clearing upside towards Quasimodo resistance at 114.45 (sited within the weekly supply).

In terms of Wednesday’s action on the H4 scale, the market found a floor of support off 113 and, at current price, appears poised to challenge 114.03/113.85. This area, shaded in green, is comprised of a Quasimodo resistance level at 114.03, a round number at 114 and the underside of the weekly supply zone at 113.85.

Areas of consideration:

On account of the above, the only area that stands out this morning is the H4 green zone marked at 114.03/113.85 for potential shorts. A H4 bearish candlestick pattern printed from within this region is a high-probability short in terms of the overall market picture (entry/stop parameters can be defined by the candlestick structure). Granted, a short from here does entail selling against possible daily buying, though do keep in mind weekly action generally takes precedence over daily flow.

The first take-profit target, as of writing, falls in around 113.40: the daily support.

Today’s data points: FOMC statement and interest rate decision.

Trend Analysis

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