🔥 Executed a precise short trade on USD/JPY this morning, aligning with institutional order flow and Prime Market Terminal insights. Here’s the full breakdown of how this setup played out!
🔍 Trade Setup & Analysis:
📌 Entry: 149.300 – Price rejected a key supply zone & Fibonacci retracement level.
📌 Stop Loss: 149.558 – Above key liquidity & invalidation area.
📌 Take Profit: 148.504 (first TP), 148.213 (final target).
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3
📊 Prime Market Terminal Insights That Confirmed This Trade:
🔻 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow:
✔ Smart Money Report:
Large institutions were heavily net short USD/JPY, with leveraged funds reducing their long exposure.
Dealer intermediaries (banks and liquidity providers) also added more short positions, indicating further downside momentum.
✔ COT (Commitment of Traders) Data:
Open interest showed a significant drop in long positions, suggesting weakness in USD/JPY.
Hedge funds and asset managers increasing short exposure aligned with my bearish bias.
✔ DMX Open Interest:
66% of institutional traders were short on USD/JPY, confirming my sell-side setup.
Short positioning had increased by 34% in the last session, reinforcing my downside expectation.
🔻 Volatility & Liquidity Insights:
✔ Average True Range (ATR) Analysis:
ATR showed a high probability of an extended move, suggesting the potential for price to hit my targets.
Recent daily ranges indicated USD/JPY had room to move another 100+ pips to the downside.
✔ Session Range & Market Structure:
Liquidity grab above 149.300 supply zone, followed by strong rejection and sell-off.
Previous session lows were swept, indicating smart money targeting deeper liquidity.
Institutional orders clustered around 148.200, suggesting a likely downside target.
🔻 High-Impact News That Influenced USD/JPY:
📢 Japanese Unemployment Rate (Actual: 2.5% | Forecast: 2.5%) → No surprise, minimal impact.
📉 Business Capex (MOF YY) (-0.2% vs. 8.1% previous) → Indicated economic slowdown, weakening JPY demand.
📰 U.S. Economic Data Later Today:
Redbook YY (USD) expected at 6.2% – could impact USD sentiment.
Fed’s Williams speech on monetary policy could affect USD volatility, reinforcing our bias.
🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome:
✅ TP HIT! Price dropped as expected, hitting both targets with precision.
🚀 Perfect confluence of:
✅ Smart money selling pressure
✅ Liquidity sweep & supply zone rejection
✅ High-probability move from ATR analysis
📸 Prime Market Terminal Screenshots Included:
📊 DMX Open Interest → Confirmed institutions were net short.
📊 COT Data → Showed decline in long positions.
📊 ATR & Volatility Charts → Supported extended downside movement.
📊 Session Ranges & Market Structure → Confirmed liquidity grab & supply zone rejection.
🔑 Key Takeaways from This Trade:
✔ Trade with institutional momentum – Always check positioning before entering!
✔ Multiple confirmations = High probability setups – Don’t rely on a single indicator.
✔ Liquidity is key – Smart money moves price to hunt liquidity, trade accordingly.
✔ Fundamentals matter – Weak JPY capex data helped push price lower.
💬 What’s your view on USD/JPY? Will we see further downside? Drop your thoughts below!
📊 Follow for more trade setups, market analysis & strategy breakdowns!
🔍 Trade Setup & Analysis:
📌 Entry: 149.300 – Price rejected a key supply zone & Fibonacci retracement level.
📌 Stop Loss: 149.558 – Above key liquidity & invalidation area.
📌 Take Profit: 148.504 (first TP), 148.213 (final target).
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3
📊 Prime Market Terminal Insights That Confirmed This Trade:
🔻 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow:
✔ Smart Money Report:
Large institutions were heavily net short USD/JPY, with leveraged funds reducing their long exposure.
Dealer intermediaries (banks and liquidity providers) also added more short positions, indicating further downside momentum.
✔ COT (Commitment of Traders) Data:
Open interest showed a significant drop in long positions, suggesting weakness in USD/JPY.
Hedge funds and asset managers increasing short exposure aligned with my bearish bias.
✔ DMX Open Interest:
66% of institutional traders were short on USD/JPY, confirming my sell-side setup.
Short positioning had increased by 34% in the last session, reinforcing my downside expectation.
🔻 Volatility & Liquidity Insights:
✔ Average True Range (ATR) Analysis:
ATR showed a high probability of an extended move, suggesting the potential for price to hit my targets.
Recent daily ranges indicated USD/JPY had room to move another 100+ pips to the downside.
✔ Session Range & Market Structure:
Liquidity grab above 149.300 supply zone, followed by strong rejection and sell-off.
Previous session lows were swept, indicating smart money targeting deeper liquidity.
Institutional orders clustered around 148.200, suggesting a likely downside target.
🔻 High-Impact News That Influenced USD/JPY:
📢 Japanese Unemployment Rate (Actual: 2.5% | Forecast: 2.5%) → No surprise, minimal impact.
📉 Business Capex (MOF YY) (-0.2% vs. 8.1% previous) → Indicated economic slowdown, weakening JPY demand.
📰 U.S. Economic Data Later Today:
Redbook YY (USD) expected at 6.2% – could impact USD sentiment.
Fed’s Williams speech on monetary policy could affect USD volatility, reinforcing our bias.
🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome:
✅ TP HIT! Price dropped as expected, hitting both targets with precision.
🚀 Perfect confluence of:
✅ Smart money selling pressure
✅ Liquidity sweep & supply zone rejection
✅ High-probability move from ATR analysis
📸 Prime Market Terminal Screenshots Included:
📊 DMX Open Interest → Confirmed institutions were net short.
📊 COT Data → Showed decline in long positions.
📊 ATR & Volatility Charts → Supported extended downside movement.
📊 Session Ranges & Market Structure → Confirmed liquidity grab & supply zone rejection.
🔑 Key Takeaways from This Trade:
✔ Trade with institutional momentum – Always check positioning before entering!
✔ Multiple confirmations = High probability setups – Don’t rely on a single indicator.
✔ Liquidity is key – Smart money moves price to hunt liquidity, trade accordingly.
✔ Fundamentals matter – Weak JPY capex data helped push price lower.
💬 What’s your view on USD/JPY? Will we see further downside? Drop your thoughts below!
📊 Follow for more trade setups, market analysis & strategy breakdowns!
Trade closed: target reached
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.