USD/JPY : Potential Long-Term Bull for the Dollar?
This is an opportunity for a long term trade that shows that IF market continues its downtrend to the 102.00 region (Nice round number), THEN there is a strong technical indication that price MIGHT reverse at that level.
Key Technical indications:
(1) USD has seen a downtrend vs JPY since mid 2015, coming of its highs of around 126.000 to current levels around 106.000 .
(2) 50 Day MA crossing Below 200 Day MA (Bearish) .
(3) A potential Bat pattern is forming. All constraints being met, with D-leg completion possibly around or between the 102.000 - 101.000 region (PRZ).
(4) There is confluence between the PRZ and 50% Fibonacci retracement (Taken from low of 75.5000 in October 2011, to the high of 126.000 in June 2015). Note that 50% retracement is not a true Fibonacci number, however, it is clear that the market does indeed
respect this level nonetheless.
(5) RSI has also been on a downtrend, currently sitting around 53.9. IF it extends further down, it COULD reach oversold conditions around PRZ level. This would suggest a possible swing in market direction, supporting the analysis and creating a higher probability of a
successful trade.
Potential suggested Targets:
Target 1: 0.382 retracement of CD (106.00 region).
Previous levels of support and resistance (Major zone of structure).
Confluence with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of October 2011 low and the June 2015 high.
Target 2: 0.618 retracement of CD (109.500 region).
Previous levels of support and resistance (Major zone of structure).
Extended targets: A possible level of 114.000 (another nice round number).
Previous region of resistance.
0.236 Fibonacci retracement of October 2011 low and the June 2015 high.
Comments:
This is a good opportunity for traders that are seeking a long-term investment. The market has seen some volatility in recent times between this pair with a few fundamental reasons attributing to that factor. IF the market reaches near PRZ, check on the lower time frames to get closest to the best entry possible.
Keep an eye on this pair for the following weeks to come. Patience pays off in the long run.
Thoughts and comments are most certainly welcomed.
Happy trading!
JP
Key Technical indications:
(1) USD has seen a downtrend vs JPY since mid 2015, coming of its highs of around 126.000 to current levels around 106.000 .
(2) 50 Day MA crossing Below 200 Day MA (Bearish) .
(3) A potential Bat pattern is forming. All constraints being met, with D-leg completion possibly around or between the 102.000 - 101.000 region (PRZ).
(4) There is confluence between the PRZ and 50% Fibonacci retracement (Taken from low of 75.5000 in October 2011, to the high of 126.000 in June 2015). Note that 50% retracement is not a true Fibonacci number, however, it is clear that the market does indeed
respect this level nonetheless.
(5) RSI has also been on a downtrend, currently sitting around 53.9. IF it extends further down, it COULD reach oversold conditions around PRZ level. This would suggest a possible swing in market direction, supporting the analysis and creating a higher probability of a
successful trade.
Potential suggested Targets:
Target 1: 0.382 retracement of CD (106.00 region).
Previous levels of support and resistance (Major zone of structure).
Confluence with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of October 2011 low and the June 2015 high.
Target 2: 0.618 retracement of CD (109.500 region).
Previous levels of support and resistance (Major zone of structure).
Extended targets: A possible level of 114.000 (another nice round number).
Previous region of resistance.
0.236 Fibonacci retracement of October 2011 low and the June 2015 high.
Comments:
This is a good opportunity for traders that are seeking a long-term investment. The market has seen some volatility in recent times between this pair with a few fundamental reasons attributing to that factor. IF the market reaches near PRZ, check on the lower time frames to get closest to the best entry possible.
Keep an eye on this pair for the following weeks to come. Patience pays off in the long run.
Thoughts and comments are most certainly welcomed.
Happy trading!
JP
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