USD/JPY Breakout Fake Out - 148 Rejection

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Bulls had an open door to make a run after this week's open but, so far, they've failed at the same 148.00 handle that snared buyers back in May.

The daily bar at this point is brewing up a gravestone doji but there's still a couple hours left until the close of trading for the day, and this could end up as a pin bar.

Behind the push is rate cut potential in the U.S. After Powell sounded cautious around tariffs last week, the potential for geopol risk and higher oil prices brought another inflationary factor to the fold.

But shortly after the U.S. open this morning Michelle Bowman said she was ready to cut rates in July, and that prodded a sell-off in the USD that has made a noticeable dent in USD/JPY.

Bulls aren't completely out of the equation yet, however, as supports exist at 145.92 and the 144.86-145.00 zone. If sellers sink through that, however, topside potential would dim.

But, notably, chasing breakouts in USD/JPY, in either direction, continues to be a challenging way of dealing with the pair. - js

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