USDJPY TRADE PLAN – MAY 21 | FED HAWKISH BUT YEN STAYS WEAK – BIG BREAKOUT AHEAD?
USDJPY is entering a critical technical zone as the market weighs the Fed’s persistent hawkish stance against Japan’s passive approach to the Yen’s depreciation. After a strong rally, we are seeing a potential exhaustion with key levels in play.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
FED remains hawkish: Officials continue to support higher-for-longer interest rates to tame inflation → USD remains firm.
Bank of Japan silence: No signs of FX intervention or rate policy shift, causing ongoing weakness in JPY.
Risk sentiment neutral: Risk-off flows are muted; USDJPY remains trapped in a wide range – awaiting macro catalysts.
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H2 CHART):
Price is now correcting within a falling channel.
Price broke below the MA200 and rising trendline, now retesting a key support zone at 143.77.
The current range 141.99 – 144.71 is critical – a breakout from either end may dictate the next medium-term direction.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY:
✅ SCENARIO A – SELL THE RALLY (PRIMARY BIAS):
If price rejects 144.71:
SELL ZONE: 144.70 – 144.71
SL: 145.10
TP: 143.77 → 143.30 → 142.50 → 141.99
→ Key resistance area – price may trigger strong seller interest.
✅ SCENARIO B – SELL ON BREAKDOWN:
If price breaks 143.77 and retests:
SELL ZONE: 143.60 – 143.70 (post-breakdown entry)
SL: 144.10
TP: 142.50 → 142.00 → 141.99
✅ SCENARIO C – SHORT-TERM BUY (LESS FAVORABLE):
If price reacts positively at 141.99 with bullish confirmation:
BUY ZONE: 141.90 – 141.99
SL: 141.50
TP: 142.50 → 143.00 → 143.77
→ Only take this setup if strong reversal signals appear.
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
Resistance: 144.71 – 145.00 – 148.44
Support: 143.77 – 143.30 – 141.99 – 141.20
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS:
USDJPY remains in a volatile consolidation zone, pressured by a hawkish Fed but lacking JPY strength. Watch for PMI data and Fed comments this week for directional cues. Until then, respect the current range and trade with discipline.
📣 Bias favors SELL from 144.71 unless buyers reclaim full control – trade the reaction, not the prediction!
USDJPY is entering a critical technical zone as the market weighs the Fed’s persistent hawkish stance against Japan’s passive approach to the Yen’s depreciation. After a strong rally, we are seeing a potential exhaustion with key levels in play.
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT:
FED remains hawkish: Officials continue to support higher-for-longer interest rates to tame inflation → USD remains firm.
Bank of Japan silence: No signs of FX intervention or rate policy shift, causing ongoing weakness in JPY.
Risk sentiment neutral: Risk-off flows are muted; USDJPY remains trapped in a wide range – awaiting macro catalysts.
📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H2 CHART):
Price is now correcting within a falling channel.
Price broke below the MA200 and rising trendline, now retesting a key support zone at 143.77.
The current range 141.99 – 144.71 is critical – a breakout from either end may dictate the next medium-term direction.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY:
✅ SCENARIO A – SELL THE RALLY (PRIMARY BIAS):
If price rejects 144.71:
SELL ZONE: 144.70 – 144.71
SL: 145.10
TP: 143.77 → 143.30 → 142.50 → 141.99
→ Key resistance area – price may trigger strong seller interest.
✅ SCENARIO B – SELL ON BREAKDOWN:
If price breaks 143.77 and retests:
SELL ZONE: 143.60 – 143.70 (post-breakdown entry)
SL: 144.10
TP: 142.50 → 142.00 → 141.99
✅ SCENARIO C – SHORT-TERM BUY (LESS FAVORABLE):
If price reacts positively at 141.99 with bullish confirmation:
BUY ZONE: 141.90 – 141.99
SL: 141.50
TP: 142.50 → 143.00 → 143.77
→ Only take this setup if strong reversal signals appear.
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
Resistance: 144.71 – 145.00 – 148.44
Support: 143.77 – 143.30 – 141.99 – 141.20
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS:
USDJPY remains in a volatile consolidation zone, pressured by a hawkish Fed but lacking JPY strength. Watch for PMI data and Fed comments this week for directional cues. Until then, respect the current range and trade with discipline.
📣 Bias favors SELL from 144.71 unless buyers reclaim full control – trade the reaction, not the prediction!
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.