Introduction
The USD/JPY pair has been in a clear daily downtrend, marked by a bearish market structure and strong downside momentum. Sellers remain firmly in control, consistently driving prices lower as the pair respects the prevailing trend. Each failed recovery attempt only reinforces the bearish structure, suggesting that the path of least resistance continues to be to the downside.
FVG
Following the most recent drop, the pair is now consolidating just above a key support level. A short-term relief bounce toward the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) wouldn't be unexpected. This particular FVG, formed during the last leg down, remains unfilled — and such gaps are often revisited before the trend resumes.
Confluences
Notably, this FVG aligns with the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement zone (0.618–0.65), adding further confluence and making it a potentially strong resistance area. If price does retrace into this zone, it could face significant selling pressure and resume its move back toward the daily support zone.
Conclusion
While a bounce from daily support is possible, I expect USD/JPY to encounter resistance at the 4H FVG level. This could cap any recovery attempts and signal a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
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The USD/JPY pair has been in a clear daily downtrend, marked by a bearish market structure and strong downside momentum. Sellers remain firmly in control, consistently driving prices lower as the pair respects the prevailing trend. Each failed recovery attempt only reinforces the bearish structure, suggesting that the path of least resistance continues to be to the downside.
FVG
Following the most recent drop, the pair is now consolidating just above a key support level. A short-term relief bounce toward the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) wouldn't be unexpected. This particular FVG, formed during the last leg down, remains unfilled — and such gaps are often revisited before the trend resumes.
Confluences
Notably, this FVG aligns with the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement zone (0.618–0.65), adding further confluence and making it a potentially strong resistance area. If price does retrace into this zone, it could face significant selling pressure and resume its move back toward the daily support zone.
Conclusion
While a bounce from daily support is possible, I expect USD/JPY to encounter resistance at the 4H FVG level. This could cap any recovery attempts and signal a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
Thanks for your support.
- Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis!
- Drop a like and leave a comment!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free discord trading community
discord.gg/ctYsFQR4bx
Free signals
t.me/codeandcandle
discord.gg/ctYsFQR4bx
Free signals
t.me/codeandcandle
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.