Previous Non Farm Payrolls in price action on USDJPY and USDCAD
Non-farm payroll is critical news that hits the forex markets regularly. Let's see how it affected USDCAD and USDJPY last time in order to be better prepared for the announcement in advance.
NFP is usually released on the first Friday after the month ends. The last such time was on 7th October. The surprise is 263K against the 248K forecasted.
USDCAD first raided High of the previous day. Then, it dropped below the last two sessions' Lows over the rest of the New York session and turned bullish after. This correlated perfectly with the USOIL chart as seen in the attached chart below.
USDJPY initially dropped below the last two sessions' Low but resumed its bullishness after.
On 2nd September, the surprise factor is 315K against the 295K forecasted.
USDCAD had a series of very calm sessions. After the release, the NY broke below their Lows possibly to raid some stop orders, and turned positive later. There is no anti-correlation to Oil markets this time.
USDJPY initially broke higher, but also ended up bearish later. The first candle was indecisive.
On 5th August, there was a major surprise as the answer was 528K against the 250 forecasted.
Both USDCAD and USDJPY saw a rapid increase in price after very good news. However, both retraced the rally over the next three key sessions to different extents. A similar pattern can be traced in Oil markets.
▬▬▬▬▬▬
Most importantly, all releases since May (included) had a positive surprise. This is generally good for the currency, however, how it plays out with the central bank's decision-making needs to also be respected.
If I were to guess, USDCAD's Wednesday Low will be taken out. But if the reaction is bullish, we may get to intervention-risk levels on USDJPY which may be just as lucrative an opportunity as mentioned in the attached study.
Good luck!
NFP is usually released on the first Friday after the month ends. The last such time was on 7th October. The surprise is 263K against the 248K forecasted.
USDCAD first raided High of the previous day. Then, it dropped below the last two sessions' Lows over the rest of the New York session and turned bullish after. This correlated perfectly with the USOIL chart as seen in the attached chart below.
USDJPY initially dropped below the last two sessions' Low but resumed its bullishness after.
On 2nd September, the surprise factor is 315K against the 295K forecasted.
USDCAD had a series of very calm sessions. After the release, the NY broke below their Lows possibly to raid some stop orders, and turned positive later. There is no anti-correlation to Oil markets this time.
USDJPY initially broke higher, but also ended up bearish later. The first candle was indecisive.
On 5th August, there was a major surprise as the answer was 528K against the 250 forecasted.
Both USDCAD and USDJPY saw a rapid increase in price after very good news. However, both retraced the rally over the next three key sessions to different extents. A similar pattern can be traced in Oil markets.
▬▬▬▬▬▬
Most importantly, all releases since May (included) had a positive surprise. This is generally good for the currency, however, how it plays out with the central bank's decision-making needs to also be respected.
If I were to guess, USDCAD's Wednesday Low will be taken out. But if the reaction is bullish, we may get to intervention-risk levels on USDJPY which may be just as lucrative an opportunity as mentioned in the attached study.
Good luck!
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