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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Long
Updated

USDJPY MegaPhone pattern: Follow up

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I posted the UJ Megaphone pattern yesterday, wondering what might happen
USDJPY MegaPhone pattern on the Hourly. UJ tsunami inbound?


This is a follow up:
It broke upwards today based on various economic news.

Now it looks like a 5 wave impulse whose wave 3 pushed out of the pattern.
So I am thinking of two possible paths to finish the 5 waves up.
Note
Here we are, at first possible bounce zone snapshot

Close up, looks to want a bounce snapshot
Note
UJ bounced at my first (most bullish) possible bounce point snapshot

But I am not sure if that was ''THE'' bounce. The higher high is convincing, and the methodical test of each line above is also convincing. None the less, I wonder if a test of the top of MegaFone is reequired or not snapshot

So I set my SL at 111.894 (just below 111.9 round) in case it does come back to test the TL snapshot

Next, drawing a fib on just wave 3, we see the bounce was at the .236 retrace. The other common retrace of wave 4 is to the .382. Thus my two entry points still fit perfectly snapshot

All of the above was Friday action, so I do downplay the importance a bit as end of week balancing by banks and funds can cause PA that does not care about TA. So I await market open after the weekend to further gauge the possibilities for this trade.
Note
Still on the path, after a slight detour.
Almost had that wave 5 going, until Trump and China caused another dip and strong bounce. snapshot
Note
First target zone hit snapshot
I think it has momentum to hit second zone, maybe after slight pullback
Note
Slithering along the ceiling it seems. snapshot If we ignore the spike/drop, then the 4.618 of wave 5 impulse might well be the end of larger wave up.

But rather than ignore the spike, I choose to Fib it. And it seems the 1.382 extension of that spike is being defined quite precisely snapshot

Pulling back a bit, and looking at both fibs of wave 5, it sure looks like a possible end of the 5. snapshot However, that spike extended to the 1.382 (black fib), whereas the most common ''overshoot'' is 1.236. So it definitely added energy to the move. Thus, I think we will go higher, but am running a pretty tight Trailing Stop in case this wave is done...

. will update as time permits
Note
wow, a tiny megaphone within the big one. Gotta luv fractals
snapshot
Note
Continuing from this pic about possible end of wave 5 snapshot

Bulls pushed past the local fibs, and even pierced the higher tf fib zone in red snapshot

Getting back to the bigger picture. Wave 5 may well have ended, with a precise tap of the 2.382 fib. Interestingly, wave 4 ended the 1.5 fib extension, not common. snapshot

However, it is actually possible that there is one more leg up to be finished. The larger wave 5 (blue) has not shows 5 sub waves of its own. So I wonder if we can still get to the next resistance snapshot
Note
Both targets hit.
Close most of position, letting a small portion ride with trailing stop snapshot
EuroMotif
Mod
the Golden Ratio is my Religion
the Trading View is my Nation
the Moderator Tag is my Flag
FibonacciSupport and ResistanceWave Analysis

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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
FibonacciSupport and ResistanceWave Analysis
EuroMotif
Mod
the Golden Ratio is my Religion
the Trading View is my Nation
the Moderator Tag is my Flag

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.