Potential Turning Point

Updated

The pink wave {i} to {v} suggests a trend reversal is under way, expecting either a three wave reversal sequence at the same degree or one degree higher.
alternatively, the pink wave {iv} & {v} are only parts of a running flat wave {iv}, one more wave {v} decline is still possible (but not necessary).

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still bullish

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close above 106.64 would be an early sign of larger degree bullish rally is underway

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big picture

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i actually prefer 12 plus lower degree 12 OR 123 with extended wave 5 for the upside

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it seems another lower degree wave c decline is underway (or bearish 3)
close below key support would favor bearish case

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a flat wave b?

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the minimum requirement for a reversal is met, a lower degree impulse decline followed by corrective 3 waves would support this bearish count

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short-term bearish target to re-test wave a low at 108.646

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or 108.543

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short-term alter count

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let's review the larger structure in 4 hours chart
expanded flat correction is less likely to happen but it is still possible
preferred count in blue

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also be aware that a potential diagonal to finish blue wave v circle

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almost there?

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break below 110.454 would activate the red count

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plus larger degree buying opportunity if we can confirm the end of wave 2 or B

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either way

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Trade active

had few long positions with stops just 1 tick below the recent low of 108.112
may move my stops to breakeven if the current rally continues

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could be a sharp double zigzag for wave {ii}, no immediate bullish signal for the short-term

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double zigzag (w)-(x)-(y) is likely to happen, maybe re-test 61.8% Fibo retracement level

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combination (w)-(x)-(y) is also possible

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close above wave (x) high would argue the correction has finished

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buying opportunities may arise again after a bullish flag or other sideways corrective patterns

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a quick review of the larger structure, my preferred count expects another impulsive rally, but red {i}&{ii} could also be labeled as (a) & (b) of a {b} wave, where {b} wave could be a flat or triangle

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bullish count in blue or red

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break above 110.757 could signal more bullish potential

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pink diagonal C OR blue impulse C or 3 OR grey complex B

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blue wave C or 3 is under way

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RSI is making higher highs, this is a strong sign of the bullish trend

short-term bullish targets
113.211 if blue wave (iii) = 1.618 * blue wave (i)
113.884 if blue wave {iii} = 1.618 * blue wave {i}

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possible short-term wave count

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break below blue wave {i} high at 110.904 would argue a different wave count, e.g. red double zigzag W-X-Y

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ready for sell setup ?

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current price pattern looks bearish to me

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We could have red i-ii + green {i}-{ii} count OR a pink diagonal i follow by ii

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late stage of wave (c)

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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