USDJPY: Dollar fluctuates as views of interest rate cuts grow; T
Updated
The US dollar is experiencing volatility against most major currencies today, with market sentiment affected by predictions that the US Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates. The Japanese yen remains an exception, maintaining its position against the dollar following the Bank of Japan's decision to continue its expansionary monetary policy.
Federal Reserve officials tried to manage market expectations after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, which hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. This outlook has led to a surge in financial markets, with current forecasts suggesting a 67.5% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, Kyle Rodda, commented on the situation, saying that the Federal Reserve must now decide whether to match market expectations or counter them, potentially causing market instability.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his forecast for two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but emphasized that immediate action was not necessary. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the central bank's ability to lower interest rates will depend on the trajectory of the economy.
The dollar index, which compares the US dollar to a basket of other currencies, remained relatively unchanged at 102.20 after falling more than 0.3% earlier. Last week, the index hit a four-month low at 101.76. Rodda also mentioned that upcoming economic data will be important in determining the direction of the dollar, as it will indicate whether the expected interest rate cuts for next year are justified.
Investors are now awaiting the release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which could shed light on whether inflation is slowing enough to justify easing. policy next year or not.
In Japan, the yen traded lower at 143.78 yen against the dollar, having weakened after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which did not suggest a change was imminent from negative interest rates. According to National Australia Bank senior foreign exchange strategist Rodrigo Catril, expectations are now set for a policy change no sooner than April.
Federal Reserve officials tried to manage market expectations after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, which hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. This outlook has led to a surge in financial markets, with current forecasts suggesting a 67.5% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, Kyle Rodda, commented on the situation, saying that the Federal Reserve must now decide whether to match market expectations or counter them, potentially causing market instability.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his forecast for two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but emphasized that immediate action was not necessary. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the central bank's ability to lower interest rates will depend on the trajectory of the economy.
The dollar index, which compares the US dollar to a basket of other currencies, remained relatively unchanged at 102.20 after falling more than 0.3% earlier. Last week, the index hit a four-month low at 101.76. Rodda also mentioned that upcoming economic data will be important in determining the direction of the dollar, as it will indicate whether the expected interest rate cuts for next year are justified.
Investors are now awaiting the release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which could shed light on whether inflation is slowing enough to justify easing. policy next year or not.
In Japan, the yen traded lower at 143.78 yen against the dollar, having weakened after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which did not suggest a change was imminent from negative interest rates. According to National Australia Bank senior foreign exchange strategist Rodrigo Catril, expectations are now set for a policy change no sooner than April.
Note
💵USDJPY SELL 143.70-143.60💵✅TP1 143.30
✅TP2 143.00
❌SL 144.10
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