UJ MAKE OR BREAK?
Updated
In the daily chart, UJ has been looking obedient in respecting Fib retracements, as from Dec of 2014, the low of 115.561 continued trending upwards to 125.856 on the 5th of June 2015, then subsequently retracing back to test the .764 zone on 24th August, failed, and then tried testing the .764 again on the 15th of October 2015, before resuming its upward trend.
In view of divergence in the daily RSI, I find the pair consolidating in the channel (116-125.856) for the year, and as with the pair currently testing the .764 of the latest swing highs and lows, if UJ fails to break and close above the .764 with strong conviction, it risks falling back to to 120 zone, and if the divergence and consolidation is true, a UJ reversal would bring the pair even lower.
If UJ manages to break above, a test of 126 is likely.
Fundamentally, with the BOJ voicing out that they are unlikely to increase stimulus/easing, and as with GDP indicators showing signs of improvement, the yen is likely to see strength in the market's disappointment of dampened expectations of such easing. However, it is key to look out for continuously falling commodity/oil prices and regional developments and how it may affect inflation in Japan, and BOJ's view/actions to be taken.
In view of the Fed, it is apt to watch for the tone of Fed voters' dovish/hawkishness at the interest rate decision meeting and observe price action to see how much is already priced in, or yet to be. Such dollar reaction may confirm the market's uncertainty and push the pair out of the year long channel.
I remain bearish for the pair, but my view may change in light of further unexpected developments in the market.
This view is also reinforced by market anomalies in the financial markets see: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/five-strange-things-that-have-been-happening-in-financial-markets
As well as the uncertainty in implications of even the slight 25bps hike that forces markets and businesses out of their comfort zone of easy money. Factoring in also recent geopolitical happenings and terrorism - where the Yen is often considered a safe haven, as well as the impending repercussions of the strong USD to exporting businesses in the US to the economy risking further verbal/real intervention from the Fed - I am bearish.
Trade wisely and happy pipping!
In view of divergence in the daily RSI, I find the pair consolidating in the channel (116-125.856) for the year, and as with the pair currently testing the .764 of the latest swing highs and lows, if UJ fails to break and close above the .764 with strong conviction, it risks falling back to to 120 zone, and if the divergence and consolidation is true, a UJ reversal would bring the pair even lower.
If UJ manages to break above, a test of 126 is likely.
Fundamentally, with the BOJ voicing out that they are unlikely to increase stimulus/easing, and as with GDP indicators showing signs of improvement, the yen is likely to see strength in the market's disappointment of dampened expectations of such easing. However, it is key to look out for continuously falling commodity/oil prices and regional developments and how it may affect inflation in Japan, and BOJ's view/actions to be taken.
In view of the Fed, it is apt to watch for the tone of Fed voters' dovish/hawkishness at the interest rate decision meeting and observe price action to see how much is already priced in, or yet to be. Such dollar reaction may confirm the market's uncertainty and push the pair out of the year long channel.
I remain bearish for the pair, but my view may change in light of further unexpected developments in the market.
This view is also reinforced by market anomalies in the financial markets see: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/five-strange-things-that-have-been-happening-in-financial-markets
As well as the uncertainty in implications of even the slight 25bps hike that forces markets and businesses out of their comfort zone of easy money. Factoring in also recent geopolitical happenings and terrorism - where the Yen is often considered a safe haven, as well as the impending repercussions of the strong USD to exporting businesses in the US to the economy risking further verbal/real intervention from the Fed - I am bearish.
Trade wisely and happy pipping!
Comment
UPDATE 1: UJ has broken out of the month long channel. A close below 122.16 area points to additional downside impending.
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