Long

USDJPY m-term BUY setup (wave analysis)

Updated

1st major SELL target is reached - 111.56 (actual price was 111.59) - 38.2% retracement of wave 3(yellow) and 61.8% of wave (1);
My analysis tells that entire correction (bear market) may be already done at 38.2% retracement of 27sep-15dec bull market.
bear market (wave 4) = 61.8% of bull market (wave 3) in time. (yellow)
wave(4) = 38.2% of wave(2) in time. (blue)
wave (5) looks like diagonal.
confirmation of this buy setup will be a breakout of wave's (5) channel.

If this wave count is true, m-term BUY targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.
Here is alternative wave count. (wave (3) extantion scenario)

So, wait for mentioned breakout to buy it!
R/R ratio may be 19.
Trade with care!
Good luck!

Trade active

looking good.
wave (5) breakout is done.
wave C structure: trendline connecting (2)-(4) waves is left to be broken.

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uj needs some correction.

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short-term sell opportunity.
targets: 111.93 and 111.64

after wave c is done, buy it.
buy setup is valid if wave c doesnt go beyond 111.59(7 feb bottom)

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here we go

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1st sell target is reached. (112.069)
maybe one more down to 111.775.
look for buy signals.(break of wave c trendline)
sl is 111.58.
buy setup is valid if wave c doesnt go beyond 111.59(7 feb bottom)

Trade active

looks like buy signal
wave c is diagonal (1st wave extention) wave 3 is not the shortest.
divergence is present.

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there is still no major breakout. shame.
uj has reached 111.77 sell target.

buy setup is valid if wave c doesnt go below 111.59(7 feb bottom)

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watch this breakout

Trade active

finally major wave C(yellow) structure is broken.

now uj needs some correction before moving up.
correction may last for 6-10 hours.

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actually correction lasted 12 hour.
it was a running flat.
1st short-term target seems to be reached. 113.2
m-term targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.

Trade active

looks like running triangle

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Major s-term target (113.76) is reached.

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possible re-buy point
c = 161.8% a (113.07)
but I think it's better to wait till Monday to re-buy.

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short-term targets is reached. wave 1 = wave 5.
time to fix some profits.
I think uj needs to correct last week bull market [111.56-113.16].
3-5day bear/flat market is expected.

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close look.
last week bull market's trendline is broken
wave A of ABC(green) is forming
abc (purple) inside A is forming.
major SELL target for wave c is 113.32 / minor targets are 113.6 and 112.87

it's my 2nd short trade today.

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wave A(green) objectives is done. trendline is definitely broken.
1st minor sell target is reached (113.6).
so it may turn upside now, but there is still some room to fall. (toward 113.32 target)

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unless price does not go beyond 114.55, it still may go down.
short-term SELL targets are: 113.94, 113.6(major) and 113.05

Trade active

S-term buy targets: 115.47-115.82

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1st minor target [114.84-114.99] is reached.
Pretty sharp correction started.
Disappoints. I didn't fix any uj profits. Just 2/3 of gu shorts.

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114.05 - possible re-buy point

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I don't have a clear view on UJ now.
usd goes crazy today. it breaks my planes.
I'll wait for consolidation to figure out what is going on

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possible scenario

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wave 2(green) may still be in progress
in this case, uj may fall to 113.7

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in case of 2 wave had already been done, this abc is just a minor correction, which target is 112.979.
price currently stuck at this level. so a probability of this scenario is increased.
take into account.

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wave 2 is done on 80-95%. maybe 1-2 little swings down are left
keep an eye on it!
it should give a nice s-term BUY opportunity in near time
s-term buy target would be 114.9

s-term buy setup is valid if price does not moves beyond 113.25

Trade active

ending diagonal is formed and broken.
s-term BUY target is 115.13

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price went beyond local bottom.
s-term buy setup is invalid.

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as I see it now

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price went beyond 14 feb low.
s-term buy setup is wrong.

Trade closed manually

uj looks very weak now.
it may crash in near term.
entire m-term buy setup might be invalid now.
It think it's better to close m-term longs in this situation.

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uj performs wave (2) - ABC (5-3-5) correction pattern.
100% target is reached.
161.8% target left.
I think it's a good time to look for re-buy point to resume advance toward 120.
If price does not exceed 111.59 m-term buy setup is valid.
watch wave C trendline breakout.

big picture.

Trade active

looks like m-term buy setup is valid.
diagonal was formed on 5th wave.
price didn't go below 111,59 (7 feb bottom)
diagonal trendline was broken. - buy signal.
expanding triangle was formed.

Trade active

112.89 and 113.46 - possible levels where uj may slow down a little bit
I wish uj to be unstoppable this week

Trade active

triangle

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watch breakout

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a=c
price should not move below local bottom(112.25)

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s-term buy signal is invalid

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bigger picture
abc - flat
one swing up, one down, then watch for breakout

Trade active

watch breakout

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m-term buy setup is valid if price does not go below 111.59

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s-term analysis

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looks like running triangle

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buy targets.
aiming 114.88 in short term

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moved sl at 113.72

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Trade active

current look & targets

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m-term targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.

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possible re-buy points.

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114.76 target was reached

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possible re-buy point

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possible price action scenario

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as wave 3(yellow) was formed (114.76 target reached), correction is expected
big picture.

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I expect a good sell opportunity today/tomorrow after wave B would be formed.

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short term sell. wave C unfolds.
sell targets: 113.41 and 112.96

Trade active

short term buy targets

medium term buy targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.

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I want to inform u that UJ reached short term buy targets before NFP report was released.
so technically it's likely to be corrected in near term to resume upward move latter.
no matter how good NFP report was.

Order cancelled

deep correction scenario.
price went below 6 feb and 28 feb bottoms.
m-term buy idea is closed / cancelled.
it was pretty nice idea. price went up from 111.59 to 115.5. [390 pips]
2 bull markets and one bear market were predicted, while uj m-term buy setup idea was active.
I told that short term buy targets was reached in previous update and I called for correction 14 minuted after NFP report, when price was 115.21.
now uj looks like it perform ABC zigzag correction (wave 4)
sell targets 111.11, 108.41, 107.2(61.8% retracement of 27 sep-15 dec bull market), 104.08

OleksandrSnitko

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