USDJPY weekly analysis
Overall the pair is still in the symmetrical triangle that started in June 2015. The abcde formation of the triangle is respectful of the Fibonacci retracements and should make another touch on the e before a break out. And the chart shows a massive resistance at the 61.8% level of the bc, where it also bounced of the 200 SMA and formed a nice shooting start. Last week the price touched the counter trend line but we are yet to see a decisive break lower. If you are not short on this already, this could be a good opportunity to get in, potential setups are seen on lower time frames. If the break happens, we should see the price testing 108 again, where we have a strong support and a 61.8% retracement. For me the bias is on the short side but we need to break the countertrend first for confirmation. Look also at the time it takes for each wave: a-12 months; b-6 months; c-16 months; d-4 months, which makes sense since it is symmetrical triangle of a major uptrend. If the relationship holds than e could take more than August to finish.
Plus next week we have both BoJ and BoE interest rate statements, interesting to see if the technicals and fundamentals align. BoE expected to raise rates and BoJ expected not too, but pay close attention to statements after the rates.
Plus next week we have both BoJ and BoE interest rate statements, interesting to see if the technicals and fundamentals align. BoE expected to raise rates and BoJ expected not too, but pay close attention to statements after the rates.
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