USD/JPY Weekly Analysis – Symmetrical Triangle Forming a Potential Bearish Breakout Setup
Date: May 3, 2025 | Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
🔷 Pattern Overview: Symmetrical Triangle
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading within a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern that has been developing since mid-2023. This classic chart pattern represents a period of consolidation and indecision in the market, typically preceding a volatility expansion through a breakout or breakdown.
Triangle Boundaries:
The upper trendline connects successive lower highs—a sign of diminishing bullish momentum.
The lower trendline connects a series of higher lows—indicating persistent buying interest near support.
The pattern is now approaching the apex, suggesting an imminent breakout (direction to be confirmed).
🧱 Key Structural Levels
Resistance Zone: ~158.00 – 160.00
Historically tested multiple times; represents strong supply and the upper triangle boundary.
Support Zone: ~138.00 – 140.00
Major buying interest observed; also the lower boundary of the triangle.
Current Price: 144.957 (as of the latest candle)
🔻 Bearish Trade Setup
Based on the price behavior and market structure, a bearish breakout is the more probable scenario. Here’s how the setup unfolds:
Breakdown Trigger: A clear weekly candle close below the triangle support (~140.00) would confirm the pattern’s completion and initiate the downtrend.
First Target (TP1): 132.047
A conservative take-profit zone, based on the last swing low and internal price action levels.
Second Target (TP2): 124.226
Calculated using the height of the triangle projected downward from the breakdown point, this is the full measured move target.
Stop Loss (SL): 158.357
Placed above recent highs and triangle resistance; this invalidates the bearish setup if breached.
📉 Technical Indicators (not shown but recommended):
Volume: Should increase on a breakdown to confirm strength.
CCI/Woodies CCI: Currently showing a bearish divergence; both fast and slow lines are in the negative zone (-76), supporting downside bias.
Moving Averages: Watch for potential bearish crossovers or failure to reclaim key moving averages like the 50- and 200-week MA.
⚠️ Risk Management & Considerations
Only act on confirmed weekly breakdowns with strong volume.
Macro drivers such as Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan policy shifts may rapidly alter trend bias.
A false breakout is possible; traders should wait for candle confirmation, not just wicks.
✅ Summary
The USD/JPY is coiling within a symmetrical triangle, and all eyes are on the 140.00 support zone. A breakdown here could initiate a significant bearish leg, offering strong R:R potential toward 132.00 and possibly 124.00. Patience and confirmation are key before entering this setup.
Date: May 3, 2025 | Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
🔷 Pattern Overview: Symmetrical Triangle
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading within a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern that has been developing since mid-2023. This classic chart pattern represents a period of consolidation and indecision in the market, typically preceding a volatility expansion through a breakout or breakdown.
Triangle Boundaries:
The upper trendline connects successive lower highs—a sign of diminishing bullish momentum.
The lower trendline connects a series of higher lows—indicating persistent buying interest near support.
The pattern is now approaching the apex, suggesting an imminent breakout (direction to be confirmed).
🧱 Key Structural Levels
Resistance Zone: ~158.00 – 160.00
Historically tested multiple times; represents strong supply and the upper triangle boundary.
Support Zone: ~138.00 – 140.00
Major buying interest observed; also the lower boundary of the triangle.
Current Price: 144.957 (as of the latest candle)
🔻 Bearish Trade Setup
Based on the price behavior and market structure, a bearish breakout is the more probable scenario. Here’s how the setup unfolds:
Breakdown Trigger: A clear weekly candle close below the triangle support (~140.00) would confirm the pattern’s completion and initiate the downtrend.
First Target (TP1): 132.047
A conservative take-profit zone, based on the last swing low and internal price action levels.
Second Target (TP2): 124.226
Calculated using the height of the triangle projected downward from the breakdown point, this is the full measured move target.
Stop Loss (SL): 158.357
Placed above recent highs and triangle resistance; this invalidates the bearish setup if breached.
📉 Technical Indicators (not shown but recommended):
Volume: Should increase on a breakdown to confirm strength.
CCI/Woodies CCI: Currently showing a bearish divergence; both fast and slow lines are in the negative zone (-76), supporting downside bias.
Moving Averages: Watch for potential bearish crossovers or failure to reclaim key moving averages like the 50- and 200-week MA.
⚠️ Risk Management & Considerations
Only act on confirmed weekly breakdowns with strong volume.
Macro drivers such as Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan policy shifts may rapidly alter trend bias.
A false breakout is possible; traders should wait for candle confirmation, not just wicks.
✅ Summary
The USD/JPY is coiling within a symmetrical triangle, and all eyes are on the 140.00 support zone. A breakdown here could initiate a significant bearish leg, offering strong R:R potential toward 132.00 and possibly 124.00. Patience and confirmation are key before entering this setup.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.