USDJPY 60m . . . testing the LOWS in a channel
Updated
My preferred chart time frame is the 30m . . . I'm an intraday trader with an eye on the big picture so my trading decisions have to fit comfortably with both in mind. To clearly plot the info I've posted a 60m chart for ease of reading.
USDJPY is clearly on a BULL run in the big picture and with more FED rate hikes on the horizon, I don't see why that sentiment should stop and reverse. USDJPY is well overdue a pull back and even BULLS want to see a little VALUE and "discount" come back to PRICE before BUYING in again.
Here on the hourly chart we have a clear channel pull back . . . we have the parameters to trade either way but intraday favours SELLERS for the moment when PRICE is at the top channel and signals SELL. The risk is in BUYING at the bottom channel because that would be counter trend trading intraday with the chances that PRICE could just as easily go sideways to hit the top channel coupled with the risk of PRICE breaking the channel with a blow out to lower levels.
5 Day AvDaRa is 195 points +/- duly plotted from the current H&L of the day. This is price range and not points plus or minus on the day and one or the other will move as PRICE plots new H&Ls. You will note that the lower boundary is outside of the channels which gives weight to a potential sideways day atm but the 10/20 EMAs (black red) are no where near positive as I write.
I'm a moderately conservative trader . . . I need a very good reason to place a trade and know where my TP and STOP levels are. If I don't have those markers I have nothing other than hope and that's not a very good indicator.
USDJPY is clearly on a BULL run in the big picture and with more FED rate hikes on the horizon, I don't see why that sentiment should stop and reverse. USDJPY is well overdue a pull back and even BULLS want to see a little VALUE and "discount" come back to PRICE before BUYING in again.
Here on the hourly chart we have a clear channel pull back . . . we have the parameters to trade either way but intraday favours SELLERS for the moment when PRICE is at the top channel and signals SELL. The risk is in BUYING at the bottom channel because that would be counter trend trading intraday with the chances that PRICE could just as easily go sideways to hit the top channel coupled with the risk of PRICE breaking the channel with a blow out to lower levels.
5 Day AvDaRa is 195 points +/- duly plotted from the current H&L of the day. This is price range and not points plus or minus on the day and one or the other will move as PRICE plots new H&Ls. You will note that the lower boundary is outside of the channels which gives weight to a potential sideways day atm but the 10/20 EMAs (black red) are no where near positive as I write.
I'm a moderately conservative trader . . . I need a very good reason to place a trade and know where my TP and STOP levels are. If I don't have those markers I have nothing other than hope and that's not a very good indicator.
Note
NB. Fundamental news/information determines an overall direction of a market after which technical trading comes to the fore and so on and so forth. The market has its concerns about a Trump presidency and he didn't do himself any favours yesterday to allay those concerns by not outlining (even briefly) his fiscal stimulus proposals, whilst knocking some very important countries, his own intelligence agencies, the pharma and biotech industry etc, etc, etc . . . it's all about "him" between the rhetoric and that's what worries the markets . . . love him or hate him until we see some flesh on his mandate he will remain a concern.
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