Weekly gain/loss: + 47 pips
Weekly closing price: 112.46
Over the course of last week’s segment, dollar bulls pushed to fresh highs of 113.25 and registered its third consecutive bullish close. As a result, the odds of price shaking hands with nearby supply at 115.50-113.85 are still high, in our humble opinion.
In conjunction with weekly flow, we can also see daily price respecting support at 111.91 and showing space for the unit to move north up to at least the trendline resistance extended from the high 115.50 (intersects with the aforementioned weekly supply zone).
Consequent to a rather lackluster performance on Friday, H4 price spent the day trading from local support found at 112.64. Despite this, the road to 112 remains in view and is still, as highlighted in Friday’s report, an incredibly appealing level at the moment. Here’s why:
• Positioned directly above daily support at 111.91.
• Located just below July’s opening level at 112.09.
• Nearby a 61.8% H4 Fib support at 112.16 taken from the low 111.47.
• Boasts a 127.2% H4 Fib ext. point at 112.12 extended from the high 113.25.
Suggestions: With space seen for both weekly and daily action to push higher, coupled with the 112 handle’s surrounding confluence mentioned above, a long from the green H4 buy zone is worthy of attention. As psychological levels are prone to fakeouts, however, the team has decided to wait for H4 price to confirm buyer intent before pulling the trigger. For us, this would simply be a full or near-full-bodied bullish candle formed within the green zone, which would, in our view, provide enough evidence to hold the position up to at least 113/H4 supply at 113.57-113.38.
Data points to consider: US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 2.45pm, followed by FOMC member Kaplan speaking at 7pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 111.91/112.16 (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).