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Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
Trendline-bounce plays can be dangerous if you're new to trading. It's always good to wait for confirmation. In this case, an ideal scenario would be to bounce off the TL's third touch (now) and break into resistance for a confirmed breakout. If bulls come in here, they'll reclaim the resistance as support and continue higher. That's the ideal move. A safe trader would buy on break of resistance ONLY AFTER resistance becomes support. Here's a visual:
Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection
Many traders will like to think that this was a bearish rejection on the 4th touch of TL and they hopped in to short it. But wait. Not so fast - that can be a bearish fakeout. Need to be careful here and wait for proper confirmation, which would look something like this: First, the blue trend gets broken. Next, the resistance holds up well for a violent breakdown. You can start shorting on a lower high after that.
You can play both sides, as long as you wait for confirmation. Waiting for confirmation is difficult in a fast-paced trading environment. You want to jump on a trade, make some pips right away, and log off. It doesn't work like that. Patience pays off. Wait for confirmation and take safer trades.
Always check the shorter timeframe for the best entry and for trend confirmation! If you see the wick of the last candle, it bounced PERFECTLY on the high wick from before. Also, what's great is that it confirmed a fakeout under the trendline on a strong, bullish, high-volume candle.
As I always tell my followers, go LIGHT on your trades. Baby gains add up! When you refine your strategy or hit 100 green trades, start making heavier trades.
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Note
Steadily approaching breakout levels. Hovering under resistance.
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