Long USD till pressure is off the Fed

105
1. Should there be a "true" recession, it will take the pressure off the Fed when it comes to raising interest rates. What I mean by a "true" recession, it is not just consecutive quarters of negative growth but this time round, we should pay more attention to the labour market. If the demand for labour is still high, labour market is still tight, then it is unlikely to constitute as a recession.

2. The recent change in BoJ leadership could lead to different policy direction which could affect its BOP, credit markets as well as employment.

Therefore, for the time being, I see the dollar yen reaching 147 levels. Thereafter, to monitor the domestic condition in Japan.

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