ridethepig | JPY Capital Flows
Updated
After getting the breakout we were tracking for in USDJPY we are now back and revisiting our infamous "Loading Zone" area at 109.3x right in time for BOJ to maintain the status quo.
Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning the BOJ is likely to sound hawkish via maintaining the status quo flows towards 100. Japanese consumption is falling alongside production after the tax hike and we are already starting to see this show up in store closures throughout the country, however, you can see some are already starting to argue a case for Global manufacturing recovery (unlikely with protectionism via Trump).
JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. Looking to add more JPY shorts into the 109.3x resistance with clear jurisdictions mapped on both sides, resistance is initially found at 109.3x. While to the downside support is located at 108.2x which holds the key to unlocking the 2020 macro leg towards 100.
Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning the BOJ is likely to sound hawkish via maintaining the status quo flows towards 100. Japanese consumption is falling alongside production after the tax hike and we are already starting to see this show up in store closures throughout the country, however, you can see some are already starting to argue a case for Global manufacturing recovery (unlikely with protectionism via Trump).
JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. Looking to add more JPY shorts into the 109.3x resistance with clear jurisdictions mapped on both sides, resistance is initially found at 109.3x. While to the downside support is located at 108.2x which holds the key to unlocking the 2020 macro leg towards 100.
Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
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