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Last week, the U.S. employment indicators released showed shock-level results, confirming that the job market is cooling down. Some interpret this as an ongoing economic recession, with calls for rapid changes in the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy. Expectations for a 50bp rate cut in the upcoming September FOMC meeting are growing, and there are even projections for a 125bp rate cut by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at its last monetary policy meeting. This has led to a reversal in yen carry trades, resulting in increased volatility for the yen.
- August 6: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
- August 9: Germany July Consumer Price Index announcement
- August 13: U.S. July Producer Price Index announcement
- August 14: UK July Consumer Price Index and U.S. July Consumer Price Index announcements
- August 15: Japan Q2 GDP announcement
The USD/JPY pair has seen a sharp decline, breaking its trend. Although a short-term rebound might occur due to the rapid drop, the downward trend appears to remain intact, with the current low point expected to be around the 140 level. A rebound might take the pair back to the 150 level, but in the long term, it is anticipated to fall below the 140 level and form a bottom around the 130 level.
If movements differ from expectations, we will quickly revise our strategy.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Last week, the U.S. employment indicators released showed shock-level results, confirming that the job market is cooling down. Some interpret this as an ongoing economic recession, with calls for rapid changes in the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy. Expectations for a 50bp rate cut in the upcoming September FOMC meeting are growing, and there are even projections for a 125bp rate cut by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at its last monetary policy meeting. This has led to a reversal in yen carry trades, resulting in increased volatility for the yen.
- August 6: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
- August 9: Germany July Consumer Price Index announcement
- August 13: U.S. July Producer Price Index announcement
- August 14: UK July Consumer Price Index and U.S. July Consumer Price Index announcements
- August 15: Japan Q2 GDP announcement
The USD/JPY pair has seen a sharp decline, breaking its trend. Although a short-term rebound might occur due to the rapid drop, the downward trend appears to remain intact, with the current low point expected to be around the 140 level. A rebound might take the pair back to the 150 level, but in the long term, it is anticipated to fall below the 140 level and form a bottom around the 130 level.
If movements differ from expectations, we will quickly revise our strategy.
네이버 카페 :
cafe.naver.com/autumnis
오픈 카톡방 :
pf.kakao.com/_txlKqxj/chat
텔레그램 :
t.me/shawntimemanager
cafe.naver.com/autumnis
오픈 카톡방 :
pf.kakao.com/_txlKqxj/chat
텔레그램 :
t.me/shawntimemanager
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
네이버 카페 :
cafe.naver.com/autumnis
오픈 카톡방 :
pf.kakao.com/_txlKqxj/chat
텔레그램 :
t.me/shawntimemanager
cafe.naver.com/autumnis
오픈 카톡방 :
pf.kakao.com/_txlKqxj/chat
텔레그램 :
t.me/shawntimemanager
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.