USDJPY 15min Short preparation
Updated
- Strategy preconditions
UJ market is at very strong downtrend right now, take a look at daily chart and you will see. So we must follow the trend and take Short.
Even though we know the market has high probability to continue pushing down, but the recent local movement at 15min chart is going up. The best way to take Short is to wait for the local trend starts to reverse to trending downwards as the same direction at HTF. So, in LTF, we must wait for a downside Break of Structure(BOS) to form first, then if we see any upward pullback occurs to some LTF resistance entry point, entry Short.
You can set your SL above your LTF entry point area which might be formed later today, or set it at a conservative level I've marked as the "Caution Level" at 146.568. Since the strength of the entire downtrend is extremely strong, we can aim at two possible Daily targets, the first one is conservative at 141.684, and the second one is more rational at level 140.249.
Personally, I think that this desired Short entry point will appear along with the impactful news FOMC Meeting Minutes later today, so this trade will be highly risky, but also very rewarding and effective. I recommend you to start monitoring the chart 30 minutes before the news release. If the desired Short opportunity appears, lower your lot size, do NOT be greedy. No professional traders should ever play too furiously with News releases. - Cautions
If the "Caution level" is broken before our desired downward BOS has occurred, we must abandon this Short idea, because I'll have no clue about what's gonna happen next, I think that the market will start ranging then.
Is it possible that no pullback occurs after our desired downward BOS has showed up, so we may miss our Short entry point? Yes, it is highly possible in this case since the HTF downtrend is very strong. The best solution is to wait for the next Short opportunity and do NOT live in FOMO.
For those who are reluctant to trade around News release, you can trade after that too. The idea is the same, keep seeking Short opportunities.
Order cancelled
Mission aborted !!!
The Caution Level has been broken, and we do NOT see any entry point for Short right now 15 minutes before the FOMC news release. I would guess that the market will start swinging up and down randomly. So stay away from the news release. I will make new analysis tomorrow.
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