I had a few failed short trades in the last few weeks for this pair.
My overall bias is bearish and I must admit having a strong bias cost me. I was too eager to execute a trade and I ended up front running and instead of reacting to the price action.
This morning, I opened two short positions (1 position size divided into two) for USDJPY .
Trade set up:
Entry: 150.945Stop Loss: 151.458
Target 1: 149.680 (blue horizontal line - previous week open price, Fair value gap and order block in 4H) Target 2: 148.306 (Previous week low, fair value gap )
Reasons for short entry:
Weekly:
The price had broken and closed below the previous low at 148.65. It went up again but it is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone.
RSI is starting to enter the bear territory.
Daily:
The price is still below EMA 200 and is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone.
RSI line is still in the bear zone.
4H:
The price dropped and closed below the ascending trendline.
I like the candlestick formations at the FVG - very small candles with upper wicks followed by a large engulfing candle. (1H is better to see the price movement). Sorry, I forgot the name of this formation! RSI is presenting negative divergence.
Ideally, it is better to wait for the price to drop, retest and close below 200EMA in 4H and 4H RSI to dive into bear territory. However, I felt there are enough confluences to support my bias and I like the risk:reward for this set up. Therefore, I decided to open a short position, but my position size is small.
Please let me know what you think.
My overall bias is bearish and I must admit having a strong bias cost me. I was too eager to execute a trade and I ended up front running and instead of reacting to the price action.
This morning, I opened two short positions (1 position size divided into two) for USDJPY .
Trade set up:
Entry: 150.945Stop Loss: 151.458
Target 1: 149.680 (blue horizontal line - previous week open price, Fair value gap and order block in 4H) Target 2: 148.306 (Previous week low, fair value gap )
Reasons for short entry:
Weekly:
The price had broken and closed below the previous low at 148.65. It went up again but it is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone.
RSI is starting to enter the bear territory.
Daily:
The price is still below EMA 200 and is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone.
RSI line is still in the bear zone.
4H:
The price dropped and closed below the ascending trendline.
I like the candlestick formations at the FVG - very small candles with upper wicks followed by a large engulfing candle. (1H is better to see the price movement). Sorry, I forgot the name of this formation! RSI is presenting negative divergence.
Ideally, it is better to wait for the price to drop, retest and close below 200EMA in 4H and 4H RSI to dive into bear territory. However, I felt there are enough confluences to support my bias and I like the risk:reward for this set up. Therefore, I decided to open a short position, but my position size is small.
Please let me know what you think.
Note
I can also see inverted head and shoulders in daily chart, so once the price breaks to the upside, it can develop to the upside. But the price needs to break above the major resistance line. That's why I placed this short trade with a small position size. I have been day trading long positions, but the time frame is too small to publish here.
Trade closed manually
I cancelled the trade. It is safe to wait how the price will react in the major trend line. It is forming inverted head and shoulder patterns. I will wait to see if the price will clearly breaks above or below the line.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.