Analysis of USD/JPY after the Monetary Policy Meeting
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/qRI2G1zK/
On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided at its Monetary Policy Meeting to raise the policy interest rate on the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%. This is the first rate hike since the March meeting, when the BOJ lifted its negative interest rate policy.
Following this additional rate hike decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw accelerated dollar selling and yen buying after Governor Ueda's press conference. A Fibonacci analysis was conducted to forecast the future movements of the USD/JPY exchange rate, yielding the following results:
• Low 140.252 yen - High 161.950 yen: 61.8% retracement at 148.541 yen
• Low 127.220 yen - High 161.950 yen: 38.2% retracement at 148.683 yen
The prices calculated from the above two Fibonacci analyses are very close, indicating that the support zone located around 148.541 yen to 148.683 yen is extremely thin. However, if this thin support zone manages to underpin the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate could rebound strongly to around 153.50 yen.
On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided at its Monetary Policy Meeting to raise the policy interest rate on the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%. This is the first rate hike since the March meeting, when the BOJ lifted its negative interest rate policy.
Following this additional rate hike decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw accelerated dollar selling and yen buying after Governor Ueda's press conference. A Fibonacci analysis was conducted to forecast the future movements of the USD/JPY exchange rate, yielding the following results:
• Low 140.252 yen - High 161.950 yen: 61.8% retracement at 148.541 yen
• Low 127.220 yen - High 161.950 yen: 38.2% retracement at 148.683 yen
The prices calculated from the above two Fibonacci analyses are very close, indicating that the support zone located around 148.541 yen to 148.683 yen is extremely thin. However, if this thin support zone manages to underpin the market, the USD/JPY exchange rate could rebound strongly to around 153.50 yen.
Note
The thin support zone was easily broken, and it is now falling, aiming for the next support point of 144.585 yen.Note
It has broken through the 144.585 support level and is now falling, targeting the next level of 140.487, which is the 61.8% retracement level.
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