Short

USD/JPY Intervention Risks: Caution Prevails

The USD/JPY has recently surged to a multi-decade high of 154.88, reflecting a steady climb. However, uncertainty looms over the pair, with traders refraining from placing new bets due to the threat of Japanese currency market interventions. Widespread weakness in the US dollar is also curbing bullish potential. Despite reaching a new high for April and the past 34 years, the possibility of interventions by Japanese authorities has tempered bullish enthusiasm. Japanese Finance Minister has warned of direct intervention to support the yen, if necessary. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY remains above the historical intervention zone, ranging from 150.00 to 152.00. Investor focus is on US durable goods orders data, with the USD/JPY poised to react based on the outcomes. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on Friday could further impact the pair, with the central bank's accommodating stance potentially changing if inflation nears 2%. However, a rate hike by the BoJ during the meeting is unlikely. Additionally, US economic data performance could influence USD/JPY volatility, with GDP and personal consumption index among the anticipated releases. Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY needs to consolidate before its next upswing, with potential support between 154.55 and 154.45. In conclusion, while the USD/JPY maintains strength, traders exercise caution amidst intervention risks and US dollar weakness.

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