USD/JPY | New High and Low with the Bearish Channel Broken!
Updated
On the USDJPY front, the potential for a swing analysis is once again evident, highlighted by the recent foray into the supply zone. Specifically, the swing levels prove to be highly sensitive, precisely delineating the actual liquidity areas that the price reaches. Currently, the price stands at 148.39 after a strong breakthrough, following the NFP data, above the upper side of a bearish channel. A retracement is now expected to retest the channel, considering the high sensitivity of the price in the supply zone. Subsequently, a possible upward movement towards 149.50 is anticipated, surpassing the first supply area and bouncing in the second supply area marked on the chart, where a significant sell-off could bring the price back to 144.
Turning to the fundamental analysis, the data on Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States has been exceptional, with the creation of 353,000 new jobs, surpassing the forecast of 180,000 and exceeding the upwardly revised December numbers from 216,000 to 333,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month's data, standing at 3.7%. Following this report, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, closely correlated with the USD/JPY pair, rose from around 3.90% to 4%, gaining more than ten basis points (bps). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, increased by 0.67%, reaching 103.76, after dipping to a low of 102.90. Meanwhile, a hawkish stance by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has increased the likelihood that Governor Kazuo Ueda and his team will end the negative interest rate cycle. Greetings to all and have a great weekend.
Turning to the fundamental analysis, the data on Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States has been exceptional, with the creation of 353,000 new jobs, surpassing the forecast of 180,000 and exceeding the upwardly revised December numbers from 216,000 to 333,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous month's data, standing at 3.7%. Following this report, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, closely correlated with the USD/JPY pair, rose from around 3.90% to 4%, gaining more than ten basis points (bps). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, increased by 0.67%, reaching 103.76, after dipping to a low of 102.90. Meanwhile, a hawkish stance by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has increased the likelihood that Governor Kazuo Ueda and his team will end the negative interest rate cycle. Greetings to all and have a great weekend.
Note
Waiting for the London Session to evaluate a possible short; the price is reacting inside the first Supply zone.Note
An update: The price is consolidating within the first supply zone... We can only be patient.Note
USDJPY after the significant sells the price is retesting the lower side of the first supply zone. I'm waiting a good confirmation at M15 to enter short.Note
Finally the market touched the second Supply Zone. Now I'm waiting for a bearish change of structureNote
Good mitigation of the price inside the supply zone... Waiting for the right confirmations for entering short.Note
USDJPY is starting to show some signals that indicate a bearish change of structure
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