In this chart I've outlined my price anticipation / forecast for Q2 2025.
Over the next 3-4 months I feel that it's very likely for USDJPY to trade to 160. If you have any fundamentals that could add to this please add under the comment sections.
Disclosure: My price analysis was not primarily based on any fundamentals but instead it's based on a technical view as to where I think price is most likely to trade to based on historic price action. I did do very some research (linked below) which appears to add further confidence to my view.
Morgan Stanley fundamental research on the US dollar, fixed income market and other credit markets: morganstanley.com/im/en-gb/intermediary-investor/insights/articles/is-2025-the-year-of-the-bond.html
Based on a quick read on the above article, Morgan Stanley views the dollar to remain strong for reasons explained in the article. Stronger dollar equals higher JPY prices.
Quick note on yields (see the above link as my source). "...., risk premiums are still below long-term averages and are still likely to move higher — the timing and extent of which remain distinctly uncertain. It is very possible that U.S. Treasury yields remain in a broad 4%-5% range in 2025, which, if it did happen, would be a big positive after 2024’s mediocre performance".
Key takeaways for me:
If yields go higher, then the US dollar (DXY) will very likely trade higher and this will therefore result in higher prices for USDJPY.
Let's see how things turn out :)
Diego
Over the next 3-4 months I feel that it's very likely for USDJPY to trade to 160. If you have any fundamentals that could add to this please add under the comment sections.
Disclosure: My price analysis was not primarily based on any fundamentals but instead it's based on a technical view as to where I think price is most likely to trade to based on historic price action. I did do very some research (linked below) which appears to add further confidence to my view.
Morgan Stanley fundamental research on the US dollar, fixed income market and other credit markets: morganstanley.com/im/en-gb/intermediary-investor/insights/articles/is-2025-the-year-of-the-bond.html
Based on a quick read on the above article, Morgan Stanley views the dollar to remain strong for reasons explained in the article. Stronger dollar equals higher JPY prices.
Quick note on yields (see the above link as my source). "...., risk premiums are still below long-term averages and are still likely to move higher — the timing and extent of which remain distinctly uncertain. It is very possible that U.S. Treasury yields remain in a broad 4%-5% range in 2025, which, if it did happen, would be a big positive after 2024’s mediocre performance".
Key takeaways for me:
If yields go higher, then the US dollar (DXY) will very likely trade higher and this will therefore result in higher prices for USDJPY.
Let's see how things turn out :)
Diego
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.