USDJPY Insight

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Former President Trump, who is predicted to win in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, criticized the weak yen phenomenon. The Japanese government is also making moves to stabilize the weak yen by intervening in the foreign exchange market. Ahead of the general election in September, the Japanese government is expected to refrain from mentioning the increase in export prices and tourism income, and is concerned about the potential decline in domestic demand due to the weak yen, prompting a government response.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting, with FedWatch reflecting a 94% chance of a rate cut in September.

- The U.S. Q2 GDP (QoQ) will be announced on July 25.

- The U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be announced on July 26.

- The regular FOMC meeting will be held from July 30 to August 1.

USDJPY is currently experiencing a pullback around the 162 line, and temporarily, it has extended its decline to the 155 line. Since it is forming prices near the trendline, there is still a possibility that it may rise to the upper side.

There are two possible movements expected:

1. A rebound from the current range to the 162 line in the medium to short term.
2. A break below the support range of the trendline at the 157 line, followed by a medium to
short-term decline to the 152 line, and then a long-term rise to the 162 line.

If the movement differs from expectations, we will quickly adjust our strategy.

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