🟦 USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (April 21, 2025)
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Price: ~140.72
Structure: Descending channel
Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend
Key Zones:
Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone)
Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below)
Resistance Levels:
145.17 (intermediate resistance)
147.43 – 147.47 (major supply)
149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high)
Setup:
Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support.
Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support.
If bulls defend this zone, price may:
Rebound toward 145.17
Break short-term trendline resistance
Extend toward 147.43
Invalidation:
A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10
Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150
🌐 Fundamental Outlook
🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral):
Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation.
Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength.
Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook.
🔸 JPY Side (Weakening):
BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight.
Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term.
JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further.
🔸 Geopolitics:
Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact.
If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen.
🧠 Conclusion:
Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Price: ~140.72
Structure: Descending channel
Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend
Key Zones:
Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone)
Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below)
Resistance Levels:
145.17 (intermediate resistance)
147.43 – 147.47 (major supply)
149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high)
Setup:
Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support.
Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support.
If bulls defend this zone, price may:
Rebound toward 145.17
Break short-term trendline resistance
Extend toward 147.43
Invalidation:
A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10
Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150
🌐 Fundamental Outlook
🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral):
Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation.
Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength.
Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook.
🔸 JPY Side (Weakening):
BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight.
Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term.
JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further.
🔸 Geopolitics:
Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact.
If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen.
🧠 Conclusion:
Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.