USDJPY Insight

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A missile attack at a football stadium in the Golan Heights, an Israeli-occupied territory, resulted in the deaths of 12 people. Israel has pointed to the pro-Iranian militant group Hezbollah as being behind this attack. There is growing concern over a potential full-scale war between Iran and Israel, highlighting the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. This news has increased demand for the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting begins today, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates unchanged at this meeting. The market is closely watching whether the Fed will adopt a dovish stance or continue with accommodative monetary policies going forward.

In addition, there are rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, with the market anticipating a rate cut from the Bank of England and a rate hike from the Bank of Japan.

Key dates to note:

- July 30 - August 1: FOMC regular meeting
- July 30: German July Consumer Price Index release
- July 31: Bank of Japan rate decision and Eurozone July Consumer Price Index release
- August 1: Bank of England rate decision
- August 2: US July Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate release

The USD/JPY pair has been following the anticipated movements. After dropping to the 152 line, it is rebounding, and there is potential for a short-term rise to the 160 line. However, with various factors being announced throughout the week, there's also a possibility that it could break below the recent low. If the pair breaks below the 152 line, a further decline to the 149-150 range is expected.

If the 152 line breaks and the downward trend continues, we will quickly adjust our strategy.

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