USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up Analysis
Updated
In this video, we delve into a comprehensive technical analysis of USDJPY, focusing on its bullish and bearish sentiments through price action analysis. Join us as we uncover potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week by identifying key support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe.
On Friday, the Japanese Yen experienced a decline after a three-and-a-half-day struggle, fueled by the strengthening of the US dollar. This was in response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's reiterated stance on the necessity of additional rate hikes. During his two-day testimony before Congress, Powell emphasized that U.S. interest rates may rise at least twice more this year to counteract high inflation. Market reactions to Powell's comments led to a significant increase in the likelihood of further rate hikes in July, with markets pricing in a nearly 75% chance of such action.
Data released from the Japanese economic docket on Friday indicated that consumer inflation slightly exceeded expectations for the 12-month period up to May. However, a core reading excluding food and fuel prices surged to a 42-year high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan.
These trends are placing increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider tightening its monetary policy, although the bank has recently reiterated its commitment to maintaining its ultra-loose policy. Nonetheless, the potential for Japanese monetary policy tightening may contribute to a resurgence in the yen, which has faced considerable downward pressure due to the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan. Additionally, the Japanese currency is rapidly approaching levels that could prompt government intervention in currency markets.
USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action):
In this video, I offered an extensive analysis of the USDJPY market's current structure, with a primary focus on price action-based technical analysis. Special attention was given to key support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe, uncovering potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. Notably, I highlighted a key level around 143.900, which was recently tested and represents the highest price reached this year. The market's response to this level at the start of the new week will play a pivotal role in determining the direction of price action in the upcoming week.
Stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about further technical developments in the USDJPY market. I wish you the best of luck this week as you navigate the USDJPY market.
Disclaimer:
Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment.
I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it.
Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
On Friday, the Japanese Yen experienced a decline after a three-and-a-half-day struggle, fueled by the strengthening of the US dollar. This was in response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's reiterated stance on the necessity of additional rate hikes. During his two-day testimony before Congress, Powell emphasized that U.S. interest rates may rise at least twice more this year to counteract high inflation. Market reactions to Powell's comments led to a significant increase in the likelihood of further rate hikes in July, with markets pricing in a nearly 75% chance of such action.
Data released from the Japanese economic docket on Friday indicated that consumer inflation slightly exceeded expectations for the 12-month period up to May. However, a core reading excluding food and fuel prices surged to a 42-year high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan.
These trends are placing increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider tightening its monetary policy, although the bank has recently reiterated its commitment to maintaining its ultra-loose policy. Nonetheless, the potential for Japanese monetary policy tightening may contribute to a resurgence in the yen, which has faced considerable downward pressure due to the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan. Additionally, the Japanese currency is rapidly approaching levels that could prompt government intervention in currency markets.
USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action):
In this video, I offered an extensive analysis of the USDJPY market's current structure, with a primary focus on price action-based technical analysis. Special attention was given to key support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe, uncovering potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. Notably, I highlighted a key level around 143.900, which was recently tested and represents the highest price reached this year. The market's response to this level at the start of the new week will play a pivotal role in determining the direction of price action in the upcoming week.
Stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about further technical developments in the USDJPY market. I wish you the best of luck this week as you navigate the USDJPY market.
Disclaimer:
Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment.
I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it.
Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Note
It is essential to emphasize the importance of exercising patience in this market, as market participants have started the week with uncertainty. It is worth remembering that in the previous week, it took three days for the market to exhibit significant bullish momentum. Since testing the 143.900 level on Friday, we have observed the emergence of selling pressure, which could potentially lead to a retracement of the previous bullish movement. Consequently, we now have a new setup on the 1-hour time frame that will serve as our guide for today's trading activities.Good Morning
Trade active
UPDATETrade closed manually
Sell position taken out at break-even as buying pressure resumes.Trade active
The trading activities have been stuck within a narrow range since the start of the week, leading to a buy position that has been maintained. However, there hasn't been much progress made so far. The buyers have been struggling to surpass the resistance level at 143.750, which is a cause for concern. On the other hand, the buyers have been successful in preventing the price from dropping below 143.250, indicating uncertainty at this point. We are closely observing the price movements for any small indications, especially in light of the upcoming release of Durable Goods Orders and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft from the US economic schedule, as we hope for some positive developments.Good Morning
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As mentioned in our morning live session, it is advised to maintain and secure the current buy position as we remain vigilant for additional opportunities.Trade active
#USDJPYWe maintain a bullish bias as the price action stays above the ascending trendline, with privileges of maximizing the potential bullish opportunities at the breakout/retest of the newly identified levels on the chart.
Good Morning
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UPDATEWe have a minimum of three positions currently active and they are progressing as anticipated.
Trade active
UPDATETrade closed manually
All buy positions have been closed, resulting in a modest profit, as the price retraces to the 144.150 zone. Our bullish sentiment remains as long as the price remains above the ascending trendline identified during our live session today. It's important to recall that we agreed to explore selling opportunities only if the price action breaks down the week's key level at 143.900. Therefore, we are still on the lookout for buying opportunities, patiently waiting for buying pressure or reversal patterns to emerge above or around the 144.150 zone.Trade active
Following a modestly profitable exit from the buy positions yesterday, the likelihood of a bullish trend persisting is still apparent, given that the price action remains above the ascending trendline. Consequently, a new resistance line is now established at the 144.700 level, presenting potential buying opportunities. However, it is important to observe that a breakdown/retest of 144.150 carries a high probability of reversing the direction of price action, thereby generating a bearish momentum. We will deliberate on this market structure extensively in our upcoming live session.Good Morning
Note
UPDATE from our live session todayKindly be aware that confirmation is required before entering a position in the current market situation.
Trade active
After the GDP release, we observed an impressive data outcome, with the growth rate reaching 2% compared to the anticipated 1.3%. This positive development has resulted in a significant surge in the value of the greenback, leading to the activation of our buy-stop orders. It is recommended to secure your position at this point while we remain vigilant for further potential opportunities.Trade active
UPDATENote
All our buy positions in this trade closed with modest profit while the current market structure is indicating a potential loss of momentum by the bullish trend. However, we remain vigilant for buying opportunities at this stage, unless price action shows a clear drop below the ascending trendlines accompanied by evident selling pressures. Until such conditions occur, we will be on the lookout for buying opportunities, particularly at the breakout/retest of the 144.900 level.Good Morning
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Due to the appearance of buying pressure around the 144.400 zone, its time to secure the sell positionTrade active
UPDATETrade active
UPDATE
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