USD/JPY is consolidating in a triangle pattern ahead of the US retail sales figures and the ECB rate meeting. The ECB is expected to cut rates and may hint at more cuts due to inflation falling below 2%. If they turn dovish, it could help USD/JPY break to the upside.

US retail sales data, likely to have a bigger impact on USD/JPY, follows the ECB meeting. According to the triangle pattern, a break above 149.87 could push the price to 150.98, while a drop below 149.14 may signal a reversal. Ideally, strong US data and a dovish ECB would lead to a clean break to the upside, as trading against the uptrend in USD/JPY is likely to be challenging.

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