🧩 On the weekly and monthly timeframes, the structure of 
USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY remains highly ambiguous. The key question now is: are we on the verge of a long-term trend reversal and the beginning of yen appreciation, or is this just another phase in an ongoing uptrend?
📌 Why it matters: The Carry Trade Effect
The yen has traditionally been a key funding currency in carry trades — a strategy where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. However, the unwinding of the carry trade, which started in August 2024 and continues today, is leading to yen strength and broad risk-off across global markets, from equities to crypto.
📊 What does the technical picture say?
Looking at the structure since 2022, we see a series of zigzag formations that collectively resemble a triangle or other corrective pattern.
📌 Base scenario:
We're likely in the development of wave C of a triangle. This wave could extend to the 140–138 area, where we find:
key trendline support
200-week moving average
high volume support zone (VPVR)
or
📌 Alternative view – Ending Diagonal
If the current structure turns out to be an ending diagonal, it may signal a full trend reversal and the start of a deeper cycle of yen strength. This remains an alternate view for now, but one worth tracking.
⚠️ Fundamental triggers for yen strength:
Aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025
Rising geopolitical risks
Institutional unwind of carry trades
Continued hawkish stance from the BoJ (dependent on inflation metrics)
📍 Bottom line:
This is a pivotal moment. The decision of large players here could define the trend for years to come. Watch the 140–138 zone and volume reactions. A breakdown below this area would confirm the beginning of a strong yen trend.
USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY remains highly ambiguous. The key question now is: are we on the verge of a long-term trend reversal and the beginning of yen appreciation, or is this just another phase in an ongoing uptrend?📌 Why it matters: The Carry Trade Effect
The yen has traditionally been a key funding currency in carry trades — a strategy where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. However, the unwinding of the carry trade, which started in August 2024 and continues today, is leading to yen strength and broad risk-off across global markets, from equities to crypto.
📊 What does the technical picture say?
Looking at the structure since 2022, we see a series of zigzag formations that collectively resemble a triangle or other corrective pattern.
📌 Base scenario:
We're likely in the development of wave C of a triangle. This wave could extend to the 140–138 area, where we find:
key trendline support
200-week moving average
high volume support zone (VPVR)
or
📌 Alternative view – Ending Diagonal
If the current structure turns out to be an ending diagonal, it may signal a full trend reversal and the start of a deeper cycle of yen strength. This remains an alternate view for now, but one worth tracking.
⚠️ Fundamental triggers for yen strength:
Aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025
Rising geopolitical risks
Institutional unwind of carry trades
Continued hawkish stance from the BoJ (dependent on inflation metrics)
📍 Bottom line:
This is a pivotal moment. The decision of large players here could define the trend for years to come. Watch the 140–138 zone and volume reactions. A breakdown below this area would confirm the beginning of a strong yen trend.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🥷🏼 My Telegram
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.