As noted above, USD/JPY has seen a particularly steep decline over the last week+, though rates are now approaching their most oversold levels of the year. As the daily chart shows, USD/JPY sliced through its 50-day EMA and rising trend line support without so much as a momentary pause earlier this week, suggesting that a continuation down to previous-resistance-turned-support at 138.00 was likely.
As we go to press, USD/JPY is seeing its downside momentum stall so far today as it nears that support level, so a bounce back toward 139.00 or 140.00 heading into the weekend would not be surprising. That said, given this week’s big technical breakdown, the bullish medium-term technical bias of the past few months is unlikely to return unless/until the pair can definitively recapture the 140.00 handle.
While not the most likely scenario, a bearish acceleration through 138.00 support would expose the 200-day EMA around 136.50 next.