Short

For Trump, it was the lost art of the deal

Updated

Mexico and the Mexican Peso are the "silent" winner. Europe and European Stockmarkets should be same.

Quote: "For President Donald Trump, the collapse on Friday of his first legislative priority, a healthcare reform bill, was an embarrassing loss of face ....
It brings into question the neophyte president’s ability to move big-ticket legislation through Congress.
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/for-trump,-it-was-the-lost-art-of-the-deal-468774

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MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provision
cnbc.com/2017/03/29/gop-sen-portman-we-can-cut-corporate-taxes-without-border-adjustment.html

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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

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APR 04 2017 U.S. trade deficit falls as exports hit two-year high
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/u.s.-trade-deficit-falls-as-exports-hit-two-year-high-471179

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: APR 04 2017 - Qoute: Keep Your Eye On U.S.-China Summit
Source: m.investing.com/analysis/keep-your-eye-on-u.s.-china-summit-200181292

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Comment: APR 05 2017 - Experts say China has been prepping its economy for Trump-Xi meeting
Quote: "We think that the compromise could take the form of Chinese investments in the U.S. creating jobs — this is already underway and more about framing," Mizuho said in a note Tuesday. "What's more, China could open more sectors to U.S. firms and will rehash openness to high-tech U.S. imports as well as services trade as quid pro quo," the note added. Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/04/experts-say-china-has-been-prepping-its-economy-for-trump-xi-meeting.html

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Comment: APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html

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APR 08 2017 - USDMXN is ready for a new drop back to pre election levels. The Trump Team could be expect to set a more moderate tone until the end of Trumps first 100 days in office.
Trump Fires Warning Shot in Battle Between Bannon and Kushner
nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/white-house-kushner-bannon-military-strike.html?_r=0

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Comment: APR 09 2017 - Ford CEO Mark Fields 'encouraged' by US-China future as Trump, Xi end summit
cnbc.com/2017/04/08/ford-ceo-encouraged-by-us-china-future-as-trump-xi-end-summit.html

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APR 10 2017 - China offers concessions to avert trade war with US
Xi affords Trump prospect of quick wins on market access in finance and beef
ft.com/content/6c14b8fe-1ce5-11e7-a454-ab04428977f9

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APR 10 2017 - Opinion: Trump, May show surprising tilt toward pragmatism
Quote: Instead of acrimony and tantrums, we got cooperation and compromise
... However, in the past few days, the U.S. and British leaders have shown they are perfectly capable of reasonable policies designed around compromise rather than confrontation. ...
... The president carried out what appears to have been another valuable service by removing his top aide Steve Bannon from the White House National Security Council, where the former head of right-wing website Breitbart News had seemed out of place. ...
.... In a retreat from “no-holds-barred” Brexit orthodoxy, Britain has said it would abide by some rules — including free movement of citizens — during a transition in which new regulations are being phased in. On a visit to Saudi Arabia last week, May attuned her EU dictum to Realpolitik principles, accepting that no full trade deal can be concluded until after the U.K. leaves and conceding that immigration from the EU could continue until after the next British election in 2020. ...
Source: marketwatch.com/story/trump-may-show-surprising-tilt-toward-pragmatism-2017-04-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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APR 11 2017: Trumps tweets now less agressive and since some days free of "fake news comments".
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

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APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all
Quote:

- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
cnbc.com/2017/04/11/fitch-flips-trump-isnt-a-threat-to-the-world-economy-after-all.html

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APR 12 2017 - Fears about "trade wars" fading: The Peso is strengthen.

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APR 17 2017 - Investing.com is explaining why fears about Trump might fading more now:

Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies

WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies.
Cohn, 56, did not work on Republican Trump's campaign and only got to know him after the November election, but he has emerged as one of the administration's most powerful players in an ascent that rankles conservatives.
Trump refers to his director of the National Economic Council (NEC), as "one of my geniuses," according to one source close to Cohn.
More than half a dozen sources on Wall Street and in the White House said Cohn has gained the upper hand over Trump's chief strategist, Steve Bannon, the former head of the right-wing website Breitbart News and a champion of protectionist trade opposed by moderate Republicans and many big companies.
Cohn is a key administration link to business executives and White House sources say he will lead the charge for Trump on top domestic priorities such as tax reform, infrastructure and deregulation. "Gary's singular focus is tax reform and he's working to try and get that done in 2017," said Orin Snyder, a partner at law firm Gibson Dunn and a long-time friend of Cohn. "He is working to implement the president's twin goals of economic growth and job creation. The tax plan will also include a reduction in the corporate rate, but also tax relief for middle- and low-income Americans." Some conservatives fear Cohn may push through a tax plan that is unnecessarily complicated and argue that including tax relief for middle- and low-income Americans would not spur economic growth as much as cuts focused entirely or mostly on businesses and entrepreneurs.

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Source: reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-missile-idUSKBN17H0NL

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APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying high
cnbc.com/2017/04/17/brazils-economy-grew-at-fastest-pace-since-2010-its-stocks-are-flying.html

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APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:

Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source:thehill.com/policy/finance/329159-mnuchin-tax-reform-before-august-highly-aggressive-to-not-realistic

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APR 18 2017: Mexico says TPP might still be implemented without U.S.
investing.com/news/economy-news/mexico-says-tpp-might-still-be-implemented-without-u.s-475186

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Comment: APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
businessinsider.de/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

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APR 24 2017 Germany's Merkel encouraged U.S. will consider EU free trade deal
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/germany's-merkel-encouraged-u.s.-will-consider-eu-free-trade-deal-476536

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Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'
edition.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/trump-nafta/index.html

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More Americans want 'independent' investigation of Trump: Reuters/Ipsos poll
investing.com/news/politics-news/more-americans-want-'independent'-investigation-of-trump:-reuters-ipsos-poll-484586

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Trumps path to the impeachment procedure:

1. Losing support of his base
2. Weak U.S. economy data.

Quote: Trump is losing some support from key parts of his base, poll says
President Donald Trump's approval rating slid in the latest Quinnipiac Poll
It fell among independents, white voters with no college degree and white men
Source: cnbc.com/2017/05/10/trump-is-losing-some-support-from-key-parts-of-his-base-poll-says.html

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Trump asked Comey to close Flynn probe: NY Times, citing Comey memo
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-asked-comey-to-close-flynn-probe:-ny-times

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How to trade it:

Short the impeachment procedure, long any decision (impeachment) just before the result of Senat and Kongressvoting is out.

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Even missing to up date this trading idea: Trend is still valid - short.

USDMXN now below pre U.S. Presidential Election levels.

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G20 Meeting in Hamburg, Germany:

No tradewar USA-China for the meantime

Trump keeps it friendly with Xi at G-20 on North Korea threat
cnbc.com/2017/07/09/trump-keeps-it-friendly-with-xi-at-g-20-on-north-korea-threat.html

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USDMXN reacting to G20 summit with new lows after the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

For European Stockmarkets this should be positiv.

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Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows:
washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_18935.xml?uuid=QLWiFmnbEeeUq1sfD_RZ3w

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President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad'
nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-trump-six-month-approval-rating-lowest-record-article-1.3330385

Trade closed: target reached

Trade closed on profit taking.

Trade closed: target reached

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