Short

Updated

#USDollar May Cede To Bears | $DXY $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD

Friends,

USDollar completed two superimposed bearish geometries, indicating high-probability decline in the most immediate times, as far as the 4-hour timeframe is concerned - See following H4 chart:

In the longer timeframe (Daily), a bearish follow-through from the H4 chart would open the floor up to the following targets - A conditional structure would add further credence to this bearish outlook, resting at 11634:

1 - TG-Lo = 10981 - 10 AUG 2015

2 - TG-Lox = 10691 - 10 AUG 2015

and

3 - Watch Line = 10503 - 10 AUG 2015

Following is the DAILY chart illustrating above Predictive/Forecasting model's targets:

OVERALL:

Look for congruent price behavior, predictive analysis and forecasting among the majors to support this integrative probability.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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Twitter:
4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Note

23 OCT 2015 - Following will be a cut/paste of prior "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments, so as to keep the chronological order of analysis separate from discussion thread.

David Alcindor

Note

12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE: Hit WW's Target

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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#USDOLLAR hit target as WW's 1-4 Line; Bears remain in charge:

JPY #forex
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David Alcindor

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21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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#USDOLLAR falls as forecast; Breaks 2-4 dynamic support; Opens floor to bears:

JPY
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David Alcindor

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Note

25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE (Late Post from yesterday on Twitter/LinkedIn):

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still rolling since 11993 forecast; Bear targets in WEEKLY chart:

buff.ly/1NEXxoc

JPY
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David Alcindor

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ADDENDUM - Updated chart as of this morning (25 AUG 2015):

David Alcindor

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25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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#USDOLLAR INDEX followed forecast closely; Here is a probable interim pathway:

JPY
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David Alcindor

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26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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#USDOLLAR rallied to R/S zone as forecast; Expecting limited upside:

#euro JPY
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David Alcindor

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Note

05 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn: Update:

#USDOLLAR: Larger Geo takes over smaller geometry; Forecast remains bearish:

JPY #forex

David Alcindor

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08 SEP 2015 - As a symmetry is working its way up into this probable top, watch also for the current decline, which by nature of its moving against the dominant UP-trend should be developing internal corrective (COR) waves.

Yet, this is exactly NOT what is happening - What is the ONE and ONLY corrective element that is allowed to carry an impulse (IMP) as its initial corrective leg?

ANS:

The Elliott Wave Zig-Zag, or simply written as "ZZ".

So, what is the point about this feature? this feature carries the potential of starting a more complex correction, breaching across the recent heights ... Worth following closely.

Note that it may not be the ZZ itself carrying price to loftier levels, but the initiation of a more involved and protracted COR that could do so.

David Alcindor

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Note

16 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

#USDOLLAR - Geo likely to define Point-4 next via high-probability bearish targets as shown:

#forex

David Alcindor

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ADDENDUM - Note that I have shifted Point-3 in anticipation of a probable protracted consolidation pattern developing, and carving out a higher-low (defining Point-4) and a higher-high (defining Point-5) - The targets, defined in the charts represent high-probability attainment levels, with Watch Line ("WL") representing a low-tolerance, which if breached, would require moving the timeframe to daily x 4 = weekly level (always moving a timeframe where a WL breach occurs by a factor of 4, e.g.: M14 x 4 = hourly, H1 x 4 = H4, ... etc).

David Alcindor

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Note

17 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

still moving as forecast, eyeing interim structural support in the 11883/11856 range:

#euro

David Alcindor

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18 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update: Target #1 Hit

Index hits 1st bearish target from 16 SEP forecast; Possible floor near 11820:

JPY

David Alcindor

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19 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

#dollar index rolled, hit target, receded as forecast; Bears weakening; Upside potential:

#euro #forex

David Alcindor

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28 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price continues to escalate, I have posted the Predictive/Forecasting Model's upper-most tolerance level at 12260.00. Using the actual historical highs reached recently, I have also added Fibonacci scales and highlighted the tightest clusters, which happen to correspond with the most proximal bearish target defined in the original predictive analysis and forecasting - Here is the WEEKLY chart as it stands at this moment:

David Alcindor

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Note

23 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note

First, I apologize about the back-and-forth in the enumeration of waves. I am most interested in the relative degree of wave development, and I do this over a blank chart once in a while, taking the older chart, erasing the geometries, keeping the targets and revisiting potential geometric development - Nonetheless, the consistency will remain in the most important aspect of the analyses, which is in the targets.

Following is the current state of affairs, taking an intrigued look at the potential development of an ending diagonal in a primary five wave:

There is some relative differences in wave in the largest gist, but for now, I am paying particular attention to internal wave counts relative to their next degree up, for which there is little doubt, such as the current geometric development in BLUE is possibly a complex corrective geometry.

An alternate interpretation would consider Intermediate Point-(A) be replaced by a Primary Point-1-circled (not shown).

However, the operational bias that prevents the alternate view is based on the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model which allows for a less-probable, but possible (Watch-Line" attainment, defined as:

- WL = 12260 - 28 SEP 2015

I would expect that further modification be applied to the price field until more clear price action can inspire sufficient confidence in my wave count - All further discussion I would generate would thus be more of speculative, time-wasting, coprolalia.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is pushing through and tends toward the Predictive/Forecasting Model's WL value:

Note that this is occurring right where other pairs are nearing reversal (see recent updates and tech-notes in NZD, , , , and ... Interesting, whereas the anticipation here is for to decline, note that only the is set to rally as a contrarian ... Is the Fed willing to give its Asian a "little help for my friend"?

Will continue to follow this index closely.

David Alcindor

Note

ADDENDUM - Invalidation would occur if price BACA > WL = 12260.

David Alcindor

Note

19 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Expecting current decline to be limited, temporary ... WL pending:

David Alcindor

Note

17 JAN 2016 - Update:

Just posted on Twitter/Linked-In:

#USD Index hit WL Line - Hints Probable Reversal:

bit.ly/1MVyM8u

David Alcindor

#dollar JPY

Note

Addendum - Chart:

David Alcindor

Note

04 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor

Note

26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed-line forecast. Expect significant resistance to occur at a probable lower-high:

As you may recall, 2 years ago (May 2014), I posted this chart:

(Source: bit.ly/1OfWsSd)

The chart implies that, while a sustained rally occurred as forecast, an interim relaxation of price to the downside is now quite probable. In such a case, consider a Fibonacci-based retracement in the order of 0.386, 0.500 or 0.618, although 0.785 remains a probable level of support as well.

Here is where the DYX chart (monthly) stands at this time, illustrated with probable Fib support levels:

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

26 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

This Geo heralds a "Worse Case Scenario":

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

24 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Chart has been updated, with interim pattern expected as A-B-C-D-E at the Elliott Wave Intermediate Degree (RED):

The original bearish targets remain unchanged.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

24 APR 2016 - ADDENDUM;

Note that this expanding A-B-C-D-E triangle in the Elliott Wave intermediate degree does NOT require a validation of the A-C Line to validate Point-E. In fact, this pattern can be completed and validated at a distance that is short of Point-E along this A-C Line. Hence, a re-validation of the WL = 12,260 level (defined last September 2015) remains a potential level of reversal as well.

Best,

David Alcindor

Note

20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains under bearish pressure - Higher top before reversal may be supplanted by a bearish H&S pattern:

Note

27 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

Note

23 NOV 2016 - Chart Update

Hesitating on the possibility of an expanding triangle, conflicting with Predictive/Forecasting Model:

David Alcindor

4xForecaster

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