$USD v $SEK - #elliottwave Points To Predictive Model's 8.9109
Updated
Friends,
SEK is expected to weaken in this pair, where an Elliott Wave carved out an outline of its Contracting Triangle through a series of 3-3-3 internal formations with more (leading triangle) or less (simple zig-zag) complexities.
This analysis replaces a recent one, as the Geo lost its geometric validation - However, the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force with a resilient bullish target defined as:
- TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015
ALTERNATE PATTERN - BARRIER TRIANGLE ... BUT NO MORE:
Although price is currently perched at the top of a motive wave - which may or may not necessarily mark the debut of the expected ascent - an adverse excursion should be tolerable all the way down to the 8.03040 line - Crossing of the orange square would offer a fair advance warning.
Indeed, attainment of this 8.03040 nadir would convert the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle to a related Barrier Triangle, wherein its Intermediate points (B) and (D) would come to alignment.
INVALIDATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE TRIANGLES:
If and once price breaks below the aforementioned 8.03040 interdiction level, current analysis become null and void. However, the market geometrist would have to consider the possible nascence of a Wolfe Wave or Geo.
OVERALL:
An Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle has carved its geometric outline out of Intermediate waves (A), (B), (C) and (D), giving shape to its requisite convergence of A-C and B-D lines with zig-zag internals up to this point.
A forecast outline of the expected Intermediate wave (E) is drawn, using slopes of preceding dominant waves, and levels that have been defined as relevant to the Predictive/Forecasting Model.
Although Intermediate wave (E) is expected to pass beyond the A-C line, it is defined at the level corresponding to the Predictive/Forecasting Model which had valued the top at 8.91090 on 01 OCT 2015. However, this would not distort the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, but simply offer a common "overshoot", which is a distinct signature in this particular geometry.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----
.
SEK is expected to weaken in this pair, where an Elliott Wave carved out an outline of its Contracting Triangle through a series of 3-3-3 internal formations with more (leading triangle) or less (simple zig-zag) complexities.This analysis replaces a recent one, as the Geo lost its geometric validation - However, the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force with a resilient bullish target defined as:
- TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015
ALTERNATE PATTERN - BARRIER TRIANGLE ... BUT NO MORE:
Although price is currently perched at the top of a motive wave - which may or may not necessarily mark the debut of the expected ascent - an adverse excursion should be tolerable all the way down to the 8.03040 line - Crossing of the orange square would offer a fair advance warning.
Indeed, attainment of this 8.03040 nadir would convert the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle to a related Barrier Triangle, wherein its Intermediate points (B) and (D) would come to alignment.
INVALIDATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE TRIANGLES:
If and once price breaks below the aforementioned 8.03040 interdiction level, current analysis become null and void. However, the market geometrist would have to consider the possible nascence of a Wolfe Wave or Geo.
OVERALL:
An Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle has carved its geometric outline out of Intermediate waves (A), (B), (C) and (D), giving shape to its requisite convergence of A-C and B-D lines with zig-zag internals up to this point.
A forecast outline of the expected Intermediate wave (E) is drawn, using slopes of preceding dominant waves, and levels that have been defined as relevant to the Predictive/Forecasting Model.
Although Intermediate wave (E) is expected to pass beyond the A-C line, it is defined at the level corresponding to the Predictive/Forecasting Model which had valued the top at 8.91090 on 01 OCT 2015. However, this would not distort the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, but simply offer a common "overshoot", which is a distinct signature in this particular geometry.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----
.
Note
Following is a cut/paste content of the technical comments made in the discussion thread. Instead, I am moving all of these technical comments and chart updates to this "Update Status", so as to keep the chronology clear and uncluttered:=================
19 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price jumps from consolidation base as forecast; Remains close to wave-A development of minor A-B-C formation of Intermediate (E):
The background geometry remains that of an Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle, whereas foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on its bullish target at 8.9109 from 01 OCT 2015.
David Alcindor
=================
Note
22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Price moved on up right off as forecast; Now nears the 8.45858 defined as a probable R/S level of retracement (not reversal) significant:
David Alcindor
Note
29 OCT 2915 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Finer grain H4 timeframe suggest probable interim retracement (not reversal) with downside probability as shown:
David Alcindor
Note
29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update - Addendum:Looking at the overall field, retracement mentioned in H4 would simply take price back vicinity of prior R/S level, or at time of forecast:
David Alcindor
Note
26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:A break above upper border of the geometry calls into probability of a loftier target, TG-Hix = 8.98989 - 26 NOV 2015 (Among qualitative targets, TG-Hix are of lesser probability than TG-Hi ... Think of it as an elastic straining to recoil back towards the core of the geometry):
Overall, price continues to rally as per original forecast.
David Alcindor
Note
07 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:Look for this potential internal ab = cd geometric development as forecast remains intact:
David
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.