Initially in my last update, I was expecting USDT.D to push into daily supply levels after taking the swing low from the prior daily higher low — pulling back into supply before continuing lower after the market structure break.
Instead, it pushed even deeper, taking out the range low swing at 4.56%, which allowed BTC to break higher and tag its ATH by taking major upside liquidity.
Since then, we’ve seen a cool-off from those levels. Supply has come in across majors (notably TOTAL), and I’ve been tracking the local range forming in USDT.D — forecasting a reversal back into supply. That reversal is now starting to show itself, with USDT.D rising as BTC and alts pull back.
I'm currently watching for a push into the 5.0% – 5.6% supply zone, which I believe could mark the next major pivot point for the market.
From there, I’ll be looking for weakness or signs of rejection in USDT.D — which would align with BTC and the broader market setting up for another leg higher.
Once this supply is hit and the move starts rolling over, I expect USDT.D to begin its final phase down toward 3.73% — a key HTF demand and bullish reversal level. That would mark a major shift, coinciding with what I believe will be the macro market top forming across risk assets.
This level will be one I’m watching closely for DCA entries and scaling back into exposure — the reversal in USDT dominance from that zone should align with the last stage of the current cycle before distribution takes over.
1D:
3D:
1W:
3M:
Instead, it pushed even deeper, taking out the range low swing at 4.56%, which allowed BTC to break higher and tag its ATH by taking major upside liquidity.
Since then, we’ve seen a cool-off from those levels. Supply has come in across majors (notably TOTAL), and I’ve been tracking the local range forming in USDT.D — forecasting a reversal back into supply. That reversal is now starting to show itself, with USDT.D rising as BTC and alts pull back.
I'm currently watching for a push into the 5.0% – 5.6% supply zone, which I believe could mark the next major pivot point for the market.
From there, I’ll be looking for weakness or signs of rejection in USDT.D — which would align with BTC and the broader market setting up for another leg higher.
Once this supply is hit and the move starts rolling over, I expect USDT.D to begin its final phase down toward 3.73% — a key HTF demand and bullish reversal level. That would mark a major shift, coinciding with what I believe will be the macro market top forming across risk assets.
This level will be one I’m watching closely for DCA entries and scaling back into exposure — the reversal in USDT dominance from that zone should align with the last stage of the current cycle before distribution takes over.
1D:
3D:
1W:
3M:
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.