USDT dominance Bearish formation
Greetings traders,
USDT dominance (log chart) had broken down the macro trend when BTC started rallying end of 2023.
As BTC peaked in March this year, USDT started grinding up and is currently re-testing those level from beneath, and has produced another lower high on August 5th.
Another bearish pattern is forming, a rising wedge, that typically breaks to the downside.
Very visible on the daily chart. MACD has printed a bearish divergence as well.
Before breaking down however, there is a probability of another move up towards the horizontal resistance and the descending trendline. This will have BTC back around 52-53k region where last week CME gap is.
Obviously it is possible, but less likely in my opinion, that this chart will break to the upside. This would mean BTC going to low 40k.
I personally use USDT chart as a confirmation of BTC direction, not as leading indicator.
And this chart is giving me more conviction that very soon BTC and altcoins will break to the upside.
Good luck everyone.
USDT dominance (log chart) had broken down the macro trend when BTC started rallying end of 2023.
As BTC peaked in March this year, USDT started grinding up and is currently re-testing those level from beneath, and has produced another lower high on August 5th.
Another bearish pattern is forming, a rising wedge, that typically breaks to the downside.
Very visible on the daily chart. MACD has printed a bearish divergence as well.
Before breaking down however, there is a probability of another move up towards the horizontal resistance and the descending trendline. This will have BTC back around 52-53k region where last week CME gap is.
Obviously it is possible, but less likely in my opinion, that this chart will break to the upside. This would mean BTC going to low 40k.
I personally use USDT chart as a confirmation of BTC direction, not as leading indicator.
And this chart is giving me more conviction that very soon BTC and altcoins will break to the upside.
Good luck everyone.
Note
Rising wedge indeed broke down and trend continue to the downside.
However the current level shows some horizontal support and bottom of the channel support.
This means that a bounce is very likely, with BTC cooling off a bit.
A further break down of these levels will boost BTC and altcoins further to the upside.
I think it is only a matter of time now.
Note
Just as expected, a bounce from support is taking place on USDT dominance chart, sending BTC and most Altcoins down for a breather.
The strength of this bounce will determine how much more pain will come for BTC.
I suspect this thing will go up a bit more, but eventually will break down to new lows. That will happen as BTC and Total will make new highs.
Note
10 days on and everything in this chart is working as planned. USDT dominance moved up, and now we can see a double rejection at the 50% level of the previous swing. Also a double top is formed, and potentially another lower high in this structure. BTC and altcoins have dumped as expected. If this rejection in USDT chart confirms, we can anticipate a move back down to the support zone, eventually breaking down, with BTC and Alts going higher, as continuation of major macro trend.
Note
USDT has finally broke down. After several closing days below the rising trend (bear flag) we have now confirmation by a weekly close below. Price also broke below the 200 week moving average. All this while BTC has broken out the downtrend channel, nearly a perfect mirror of this breakdown. Unless something weird happen, crypto should continue bullish after a brief correction, while USDT dominance should continue down.
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