The Turkish Lira story continues—this time through the lens of USDTRY, which has been rising relentlessly and just recently showed signs of exhaustion after tagging highs near 38.95.
🧭 As seen on the chart, after months of controlled climbing within a broad ascending channel, the pair is now pausing. We may finally be witnessing the beginning of a retracement. Key downside targets have now emerged:
• 33.77 – First area of interest
• 27.99 – Mid-level retracement
• 22.65 – Deep support within the channel
These aren't random numbers—they align beautifully with the multi-year channel and prior volatility zones.
📌 Let's not forget, this journey began with a “New Volatility Alert” back in late 2021, and ever since, the USDTRY has mostly respected structural moves. With the Euro pair also showing signs of topping, this could be the dollar’s turn to cool off against the Lira.
📰 Contextual Fuel:
• Turkey’s central bank raised rates to 46% in April—one of the most aggressive tightening moves globally.
• Over $25B in FX reserves have been used to stabilize the Lira, as inflation forecasts surge past 29.75% for year-end 2025.
• Political volatility and macro risks remain, but short-term speculative flows could now reverse.
🚨 Takeaway:
Just like EURTRY, the USDTRY may have finally found its ceiling for now. Traders should monitor price action near 38–39 for possible bearish continuation signs.
There’s a decent chance that the Lira gains ground in the short to medium term—technical and macro forces now point to consolidation or reversal.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
EURTRY Chart:
🧭 As seen on the chart, after months of controlled climbing within a broad ascending channel, the pair is now pausing. We may finally be witnessing the beginning of a retracement. Key downside targets have now emerged:
• 33.77 – First area of interest
• 27.99 – Mid-level retracement
• 22.65 – Deep support within the channel
These aren't random numbers—they align beautifully with the multi-year channel and prior volatility zones.
📌 Let's not forget, this journey began with a “New Volatility Alert” back in late 2021, and ever since, the USDTRY has mostly respected structural moves. With the Euro pair also showing signs of topping, this could be the dollar’s turn to cool off against the Lira.
📰 Contextual Fuel:
• Turkey’s central bank raised rates to 46% in April—one of the most aggressive tightening moves globally.
• Over $25B in FX reserves have been used to stabilize the Lira, as inflation forecasts surge past 29.75% for year-end 2025.
• Political volatility and macro risks remain, but short-term speculative flows could now reverse.
🚨 Takeaway:
Just like EURTRY, the USDTRY may have finally found its ceiling for now. Traders should monitor price action near 38–39 for possible bearish continuation signs.
There’s a decent chance that the Lira gains ground in the short to medium term—technical and macro forces now point to consolidation or reversal.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
EURTRY Chart:
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Disclaimer
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📣 Professor's Public Telegram:
💬 t.me/fxprofessor88
🌍🚀 CryptoGPT Trading Agent is the Future:
cryptogpt.io/
💹 Join My Forex Community:
fxprofessor.com/forex-special
💬 t.me/fxprofessor88
🌍🚀 CryptoGPT Trading Agent is the Future:
cryptogpt.io/
💹 Join My Forex Community:
fxprofessor.com/forex-special
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.