USD/TRY Targeting above 20.0000 | Q2 Q3
Updated
Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ก๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ:
โWe think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.โ
โ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ง๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ง๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ฉ๐ฌ.โ
โ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ, ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ, ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ง ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ.โ
The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY.
USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains:
USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless.
In the meantime, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฒ ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ค, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐-๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฒ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐% ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ (๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ).
From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news.
What to look for around TRY:
The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet.
Eminent issues on the back boiler:
Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bankโs credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023.
๐๐๐/๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ:
So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level).
๐๐๐๐ก๐ง๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ก ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ, ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ง ๐๐.๐๐๐๐ - ๐๐.๐๐๐๐
- BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION.
- Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !!
- The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH .
- ๐๐โ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coinโs price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ก๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ:
โWe think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.โ
โ๐๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ง๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ง๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ฉ๐ฌ.โ
โ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ, ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ, ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ง ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค๐๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ.โ
The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY.
USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains:
USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless.
In the meantime, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฒ ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ค, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐-๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ค ๐๐๐ฒ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐% ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ (๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ).
From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news.
What to look for around TRY:
The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet.
Eminent issues on the back boiler:
Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bankโs credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023.
๐๐๐/๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ:
So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level).
๐๐๐๐ก๐ง๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ก ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ, ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ง ๐๐.๐๐๐๐ - ๐๐.๐๐๐๐
- BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION.
- Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !!
- The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH .
- ๐๐โ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coinโs price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Note
Prev. Close 13.8722Bid 13.7477
Day's Range 13.715-13.9399
Open 13.8722
Ask 13.8821
52 wk Range 6.8882-18.3674
1-Year Change 88.86%
Trade active
Trade active
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